At a very early point in the 2009 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills are at a crossroads as to where the future of their season will go. With a 1-2 record and seeing countless injuries plague the roster, the Bills need a win against a favorable matchup to provide some much needed momentum moving forward.
This weekend's test is against the winless Miami Dolphins, who are just two losses shy of matching their 2008 total. If the Bills are successful, they'll win their first divisional game in quite some time. However, if they aren't successful, they'll find themselves at the bottom of the AFC East barrel.
Offense
The Dolphins offense has really taken a step back in one facet, so much so that it looks like there is a dependency pattern that favors the rushing attack. The evidence is all in the numbers -- the Dolphins average only 155.7 yards per game through the air, the third worst total in the league. Conversely, it's the Miami running game that is one of the best in the league. An almost unheard of ratio, the Dolphins average more yards on the ground per game (161.3) than they do through the air. Because of that, their time of possession is way up, holding the football an average of 35:33 per game. But since their wildcat ways are getting to be borderline one-dimensional, Miami only averages 14.3 points per game, the seventh worst total in football. However, the Dolphins do convert on 54.5 percent of third downs. But maybe the most telling statistic to their decline, is the turnover ratio. The Dolphins are minus-six on the season, whereas last season they had an impressive plus-17.
Quarterback: If the passing game hasn't suffered enough already, now Miami will have to go on the rest of the season without their opening day starter. Chad Pennington was placed on injured reserve earlier this week, and now he's replaced by another Chad -- Chad Henne. Henne was a second round draft pick out of Michigan in 2008, and hasn't gotten in to too many games throughout his young career. The Dolphins will most likely start out Henne with a lot of short yardage routes and play calls to try and get his feet wet, eventually leading to some shots down the field to speedster Ted Ginn Jr. Henne's got a big arm, but at times he tries to force the ball in to tight spots. That's a trait the Bills defense can try to take advantage of. Pat White will also see some time. The Wildcat quarterback specialist does have a nice arm, so when he lines up in that formation, don't be shocked if he takes a big time shot down the field.
Running Backs: This has been the lone source of success for the team. Ronnie Brown is already showing that last year was no fluke. He's already amassed 254 yards, two touchdowns and a 4.9 yards per carry average. He's teamed with Ricky Williams, who has yielded 163 yards, one touchdown and a 4.8 yards per carry average. Brown and Williams have carried the football on run plays all but 16 times this season. It will be on Marcus Buggs to anticipate the holes to try and contain Miami's main source of offense.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: This group is headlined by Ted Ginn Jr. A former top ten draft pick, Ginn has continued to struggle making a consistent impact because of his problems with catching the football. Nonetheless, Buffalo has to be careful with Ginn because he burned them for 175 yards on just seven catches in the first of two matchups last season. On the season, Ginn has 13 catches for 134 yards. The team's leading receiver is former undrafted rookie Davone Bess. Bess has totaled 140 yards on 17 catches. The main tight end threat is Anthony Fasano. Fasano has had trouble holding on to the football this year, but is a red-zone threat. The injuries to the secondary of the Bills may help Ginn, Bess and Henne to find some success on Sunday.
Offensive Line: The Dolphins offensive line allows an average of 2.3 sacks per game, which ranks 21st among the NFL. The continuing trend with this year's Miami team is that last season, the Dolphins were among the best at giving their quarterback enough time to see the field and make a play. Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay have to continue to build on an impressive 2009 to take pressure of the depleted secondary of Buffalo.
Defense
Miami's defense is susceptible to yards through the air, and that may be the biggest area of concern for the team. They're among the bottom of the league, allowing 264.7 yards per game through the air. Because of that factor, teams have focused on their pass attack rather than the run game. The Dolphins allow merely 66.0 yards per game, third best in the league. But for their opponents, they've run only 66 running plays to 92 passing plays on Miami. The Dolphins are also allowing 23 points per game, 22nd in the league. Buffalo will have to work to improve on one of the league's worst third down conversion percentage. The Bills only convert on 27.8 percent of those chances, whereas the Dolphins allow their opponents to convert on 44.4 percent of third down chances.
Defensive Line: The defensive line for the most part have done their jobs. In a 3-4 defensive scheme, the line is expected more to control the line of scrimmage, rather than bringing pressure from the outside edge. By allowing only three yards per carry to the opposition, this group has done their job. Defensive end Kendall Langford has a sack this season for Miami. Often times Philip Merling is subbed in on passing situations. Randy Starks and Jason Ferguson make up the remainder of the starting line.
Linebackers: The outside linebackers are the ones to watch here if you're a Bills fan. Joey Porter and Jason Taylor have combined for three sacks on the young season. Currently, Porter is listed as questionable for Sunday's game, but if he can go the Bills' young offensive line will have their hands full. Buffalo has allowed the third most sacks in the league, giving up 10 through three games. Controlling the middle for Miami are Akin Ayodele and Channing Crowder. Both players are among the top five on the team in tackles.
Defensive backs: Here's where things start to get, excuse the pun, a little fishy for the Dolphins. Teams have been able to take advantage of starting cornerbacks Will Allen and rookie Sean Smith through the beginning of the year. If there's a week for the starting Buffalo receivers to make an impact, here it is in all its glory. If Trent Edwards can't use Terrell Owens and Lee Evans this week, all optimism in utilizing those two options for the rest of the season may be gone. Miami does have two safeties that are above average. Yeremiah Bell really came on strong last season, and leads the team in tackles this year with 20. He's joined by free agent acquisition Gibril Wilson as the last line of defense. But one important note on this group and the rest of the defense is that the team hasn't had a single interception so far in 2009.
Special Teams
Handling the kickoff return duties is third string running back Patrick Cobbs, averaging a meager 21.4 yards per return. Davone Bess is team's designated punt returner, but has only gained 28 yards on four attempts. Dan Carpenter is 5-of-6 on field goal attempts, and Brandon Fields is the team's punter (44.7 yards per punt).
Penalties
The Dolphins are among the least penalized in the league. Through the first three games, Miami has taken only five penalties for 28.7 yards per game. Meanwhile the Bills are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL, taking an avergae of 6.3 penalties for 57 yards so far this year.
History
Miami has dominated the series throughout all the years, leaving Buffalo with a 34-51-1 record. The Dolphins are on a two game win streak, victorious in last year's Toronto showdown by a score of 16-3. The last Bills' victory came in 2007, when Trent Edwards threw for four touchdowns on a snowy day in Orchard Park, catapulting the team to a 38-17 win.
Injuries
Miami: QUESTIONABLE: LB Joey Porter
Buffalo: OUT: OT Demetrius Bell, DT John McCargo, CB Leodis McKelvin, LB Paul Posluszny, S Bryan Scott, S Donte Whitner. PROBABLE: TE Shawn Nelson, DT Kyle Williams
Pivotal Matchups
Terrell Owens and Lee Evans vs. Will Allen and Sean Smith
Kirk Chambers vs. Jason Taylor
Marcus Buggs vs. Ronnie Brown
Drayton Florence vs. Davone Bess
Final Thoughts
The Buffalo Bills certainly took a step back last week as far as offensive momentum is concerned. The offense against the Saints was simply anemic, not even registering a single point. This week Trent Edwards, Terrell Owens, Lee Evans and Josh Reed have a chance to right the ship and get the passing game going. It's all dependent on if Edwards is willing to take chances, rather than just settling for the under route that's available if his receiver isn't outstandingly open.
If the team doesn't take advantage of the weak Miami secondary this week, the Bills will just be digging the hole deeper. It's hard to say a game is a must-win this early in the season, but that's where Buffalo stands this weekend against Miami. If they're unsuccessful, it could spell out a less than stellar remainder to the regular season.
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