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Bills Beat Blog

By Joe Buscaglia
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Bills' Draft Odds

With the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft closing in, we could be approaching one of the most frenzied and exciting drafts we've ever seen.

With a lack of free agency or overall structure, the trades may just be flowing all throughout the day with the first round. So with that in mind, there are some players out there that the Bills could have interest in. I'm breaking down the odds of who may just be their pick(s) in the first round of the NFL Draft based on likelihood of being available and the likelihood that Buffalo will select them.

Here we go:

Auburn QB Cam Newton
A popular player whether you love him or hate him. But after today, it probably won't matter much. Carolina is likely going to take Cam Newton with the first overall pick, spoiling Buffalo's opportunity to draft him. So if you hate him, nothing to worry about. The odds are high only because he likely won't be there. If he is there, I'm convinced he'll be the pick.
Odds to Buffalo: 16-to-1

Alabama DT Marcell Dareus
Dareus is a dreamy pick for Bills' fans. He is the best run-stuffing big man in the draft, and would be perfect for a team that allowed Joe McKnight and Deji Karim to run all over them last year. Marcell Dareus to Denver looked to be a sure thing until the actual draft day. It might be a coin toss as to who the Broncos end up going with, so Dareus to Buffalo just might happen.
Odds to Buffalo: 2-to-1

Texas A&M OLB Von Miller
Miller has been the consensus Bills pick for quite some time, until today. Miller to Denver is gaining a ton of momentum, so maybe, just maybe he'll be the guy at second overall. If they end up going with Dareus, this is the Bills' man.
Odds to Buffalo: 4-to-1

Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert
Buffalo GM Buddy Nix has been far too forthcoming with his admiration for Blaine Gabbert as a prospect. That screams smokescreen to these ears. But I won't fully rule out Gabbert just because of Ralph Wilson's edict to go out and get him a quarterback.
Odds to Buffalo: 12-to-1

LSU CB Patrick Peterson
True, Drayton Florence is a free agent. But the third overall pick, especially for this team, cannot be spent on a player that doesn't help stop the run, rush the passer, or throw a football. He's incredibly gifted, but not probable to wear red, white and blue.
Odds to Buffalo: 30-to-1

Auburn DT Nick Fairley
After the national championship game, Bills' fans would have dreamed about getting Fairley in to One Bills Drive. It's amazing how things change over four months. I've all but totally ruled out Fairley, because at the pre-draft luncheon, I asked Buddy Nix which he would prefer: to stop the run or get after the passer. He responded with stopping the run. I then asked him about Fairley, and Nix told the media he was a better pass rusher than a run stuffer. To me, that means, "Thanks, but no thanks."
Odds to Buffalo: 50-to-1

North Carolina DE Robert Quinn
Not playing at all this season, a lot of fans loved the idea of Quinn, who had 11 sacks as a sophomore in 2009. But the way it's plays out, the only way they take a pass rusher is if Von Miller is there and Marcell Dareus and Cam Newton isn't. This, friends, is a longshot.
Odds to Buffalo: 82-to-1

Florida State QB Christian Ponder
I know what you're thinking. "Joe, at 3rd overall? Ponder?" Well, no and yes. If the Bills want a quarterback in this draft, they cannot sit idle at 34 and wait for one. They can get up to the early 20's and not give up a whole lot to get their man to be the quarterback of the future. There are many reasons to think Ponder is that man. The obvious connections with Chan Gailey, and the fact that they've continued to meet with him throughout the process.
Odds to Buffalo (today): 6-to-1

Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick
If the Bills miss out on Ponder, Kaepernick might be the last player they could go after that suits their style. He's an intriguing player with a great arm and mobility. He needs to be refined a bit, but he wants to work at it. And that's half the battle.
Odds to Buffalo (today): 9-to-1

TCU QB Andy Dalton
The Bills scouts compared him to Ryan Fitzpatrick. If they're taking a quarterback of the future, they'll want someone a bit different than Fitz. I don't think Dalton is likely.
Odds to Buffalo (today): 22-to-1

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett
I don't think Mallett and the Bills are a fit schematically speaking. And he'll probably be long gone before the Bills can trade back in to round one.
Odds to Buffalo (today): 36-to-1

Washington QB Jake Locker
He fits the Bills, but will be gone by the 12th pick at the latest.
Odds to Buffalo (today): 74-to-1

Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi

Haha. Wait, you're joking, right?
Odds to Buffalo (today): 200-to-1

PS: These aren't up for bets. Sorry.

Twitter: @JoeB_WGR

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Locations : DenverMarcell DareusMiller
People : Andy DaltonBlaine GabbertCam NewtonChan GaileyChristian PonderColin KaepernickDeji KarimDrayton FlorenceJoe McKnightMarcell DareusNick FairleyNixRicky Stanzi HahaRobert QuinnRyan FitzpatrickRyan Mallett

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