(WGR 550) -- We spend an awful lot of time trying to negotiate with our gut feelings.
Whether it's wanting the Bills to beat the Saints, but feeling like they won't, or knowing you're going to eat too much for dinner, but telling yourself you won't, we have to fight our instincts on occasion.
I'm hoping to avoid that battle when it comes to the 2009-10 Buffalo Sabres. I feel like they are one of the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference, and should be a playoff team. In fact, my hockey gut tells me that perhaps a little more is on the slate for this season, but we'll worry about an actual prediction, as well as an entire Eastern Conference outlook, later in this space.
Alas, let's begin with the negative, and the two things that really concern me heading into this campaign, which begins at 7 p.m. Saturday night at HSBC Arena against Montreal (I'll be broadcasting live from Benchwarmers in the Cobblestone District from 2-4 p.m. Come say hello)
One) A huge potential built-in excuse
Let's start with numero uno, which is a bit about organizational semantics, but follow me. I believe that's it's absolutely true that with a healthy Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller, the Sabres are able to grab a hold of one of the final three playoff spots last season (Buffalo finished two points back of Montreal for slot No. 8 in the East).
Even though Patrick Lalime wasn't garbage and Vanek can go into cold stretches, it's just hard to imagine the 3-5-1 record with Vanek doesn't look better with him. The Sabres were blanked twice, by the Isles and Canes, and also scored just one goal, against the Canes and Senators, during that time. Without Miller, the Sabres were 4-7-2. In four of those losses, they scored three or more goals. You think you could find two or three points in there to pull ahead of Montreal?
The problem with this rationale isn't in its accuracy, it's that I'd prefer the Sabres' brass not say it out loud. Sure, you want your team to be mentally stronger -- and bringing in Steve Montador and Mike Grier does address that -- but if Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff were saying it out loud, then the players were hearing it. While they may not adopt it, it's scary to think that the players could recall that sentiment if Buffalo goes through a similar injury stretch this season. Remember, we didn't hear about injuries when the team was down to Mark Mancari during the stretch run three years back.
Two) Management falling in love with their own
The Sabres signed a bevy of free agents with NHL experience this year. While there's certainly a reason guys like Cody McCormick, Jeff Cowan, Brad Larsen and Joe DiPenta didn't end up with one-way contracts on the Red Wings, I was very surprised to see McCormick, or maybe even Cowan, sent through waivers.
I know the league doesn't have the need for fighters as it once did, but as Montreal and Toronto proved last night, this division does. McCormick is a tough nut who is coming off his best NHL campaign (12 pts. and 91 PIM in 55 games), while Cowan is strictly a bruiser who was less offensive productive than Andrew Peters last year. The thing is, both these guys have problems with their teeth on account of other people's fists, and I'm not sure losing Steve Montador, Craig Rivet, Adam Mair or Paul Gaustad for five minutes is a better idea.
What I'm surprised to see, and nothing against the guy, is Nathan Paetsch staying on as defenseman No. 8. If the rationale is they want to see Tyler Myers play nine games and then go down, we could talk about that, but if it's just "we don't want to lose him on waivers," it feels a little less sound, especially with Mike Weber and a number of other prospects/veterans down on the farm.
By having Paetsch as forward No. 13, it also feels like you might be making Clarke MacArthur a little too comfotable coming off a second-straight year where his effort disappeared for stretches. Remember, Dan Paille had a 19-goal year two years ago, and Paille's even plus/minus rating was four numbers better than MacArthur's minus-4.
But, Nick, I thought you picked the Sabres to go to the playoffs...
I did, I just wanted to go negatives first before some folks ripped me apart for some ridiculous "company line" reason when I honestly believe they'll make the playoffs.
Let's start with the Northeast Division. Jeremy White is right when he says the Leafs are going to be a tough team to play, but its because they're scrappy, not on account of their talent. Toronto is probably a year away from contending for a playoff spot, but may not find their way to the division dumpster because Ottawa has hemorrhaged talent for a couple years.
Those out there thinking the Senators got the better of the Heatley-to-San Jose deal are trying way too hard. Jonathan Cheechoo's 56-goal campaign came in the year after the lockout, and his numbers have declined with the league's move back to clutch-and-grab. Milan Michalek is a solid 20-goal scorer who will help the Senators power play, but is a rich man's Ales Kotalik. Ottawa also received a second-round pick, but Heatley forcing their hand -- while a jerk move -- really hurt them. And, oh yeah, have fun with the Alex Kovalev signing.
So there's two teams below Buffalo, and toss the Islanders and Thrashers under the bus as well. While four of the teams in the Atlantic would have a shot at winning the Northeast, that division will again beat itself up and keep point total 5-8 points lower than they'd be somewhere else.
Which brings us to the teams the Sabres will be battling with for the final few playoff spots: Tampa, the Rangers, Montreal and Carolina.
The Lightning are a year away, and simply do not have the forward depth. They'd need superhuman efforts from Mike Smith, Vinny Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos. They've got them before, so don't count them out, but I don't think they're a playoff team.
The Rangers are an intriguing squad. Their gamble on Marian Gaborik finally freed from the clutches of the Wild's defensive system is a good one, but his health is on a Tim Connolly level of consistency. New York finally has its No. 1 defensive pairing of the future on the big club, in Marc Staal and Michael del Zotto, but there will be more growing pains than allowable for a playoff team.
Montreal and Buffalo will contend for second place in the Northeast, and the Habs actually have a shot at the division if their team comes together through the addition-by-subtraction of Kovalev. Montreal is going to have a time finding its identity and, for a veteran club, will surprisingly have to go through "the process" that Paul Hamilton always talks about. Whoever wins the season series between the Habs and Sabres will find its way ahead of the other, and Carey Price will be the key there.
The Hurricanes are a well-coached team that won't go away. If Rod Brind'Amour can actually play center this year instead of the 51 points and minus-23 he puked up last year, it'll go a long ways for the Canes. If he's all of the 39 years he's looked, Carolina is in capital-T Trouble.
Buffalo has its question marks, too, but the Sabres are essentially adding two actual hockey players that last year were ghosts. Jason Pominville is going to have a much better season, guaranteed. Why? Because his struggles were more about not shooting the puck in gaping goal mouths, something you can practice in the offseason.
Also, last year was Jochen Hecht's worst since the lockout, and his down numbers look like an aberration, even at age 32. Another key is that I don't bad mouth Toni Lydman at every turn, like many of the folks who email me. Lydman does throw the "brain fart" out there every 10 games or so, but he'll likely be freed from Henrik Tallinder. Lydman posted an even plus/minus rating even with all the time he spent on the ice with Tallinder.
Buffalo also has a Top-10 goal scorer, playmaker and goaltender, two of whom you could argue are Top-5 talents. Thomas Vanek is a finisher, and watch Ryan Miller's numbers rise with a stronger, steadier defense.
The big questions, before we get to the Eastern Conference order, is whether MacArthur can play at a high-level and whether Tim Kennedy is ready for the big show. Kennedy scored 67 points in 73 games with the Portland Pirates last year.
Without further ado...
1. Washington
2. Philadelphia
3. Boston
4. Pittsburgh
5. New Jersey 6. Buffalo
7. Montreal
8. Carolina
---
9. NY Rangers
10. Tampa Bay
11. Toronto
12. Ottawa
13. Atlanta
14. Florida
15. NY Islanders
I scanned over this, admittedly (do I really need to read about the Islanders?) then just skipped down to the bottom. Outside of New York missing the playoffs and Carolina scraping in I tend to agree with the placings.
I say Carolina is a 5 or 6, so are the Sabres and I would put the Rangers in (too much goal tending) at 7 or 8, knocking out Montreal, who is always over-hyped .... I know, they have cool uniforms, are an original team and all, but they're probably be no. 9. If there is a dark horse I'm going to go with Tampa Bay sneaking in which could knock the Devils out.... but that's a big if.
10/02/2009 10:23AM
on Cowan
True he and Peters were tied with 1 assist each last year, but Cowan's career high is 24 points. (Peters' is 2). He can contribute a little bit offensively similar to an Adam Mair if he gets some ice time.
10/02/2009 10:42AM
Still Too Soft
The Sabres are still far too soft to win the game along the wall and in front of each net. They will keep their feet moving in order to fool the media and fans but they will not deliver the grind necessary to make the playoffs.
10/02/2009 10:50AM
grier scores
the abres could be on revenge when saturday comes around because mr. traitor 1)jaroslav spacek comes back to town and 2) payback to gomez of injuring miller last season. this year the sabres will make the playoffs and go to the conference final aginst the pens.
10/02/2009 10:57AM
Using A Jim Rome Effect Nick
I don't want to think you are smoking something here, but I'll use a Jim Rome effect instead. Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr! Just swap spots. Ottawa to 6th and the Sabres in 12th. You are "without further ado" a little off here. You are soundinglike Jeremy and thats not good. Are you awake or do you help Jeremy cut Darcys lawn?
10/02/2009 11:09AM
Built-in Excuse
Yeah, I agree with the built-in excuse. I am in love with this team too, but am getting too tired of excuses. I want to see these guys perform well. Connelly, Pommer, Hecht and Roy all need to have a better season or else it's time to turn the roster over. What are we waiting for?
10/02/2009 11:10AM
Re: On Cowan
After watching the Leafs, Canadiens game last night, the Leafs (even if they lost in OT) are nasty. Miller may not make the season with the way they ran the goaltender of the Habs. Cowan and McCormick may have to be both called up from Portland to avoid their tactics. Toronto is no pushover anymore. Burke means business and the play by the Leafs should get them a playoff spot.
10/02/2009 11:26AM
McCormick
Earned a spot on the team. Hate that he was sent down and loser Paille has a spot on the 4th line. If Paille was a rookie, he'd be in Portland based on his play.
10/02/2009 12:56PM
Paetch
I thought Joe DiPenta earned a spot with his Stanley Cup he won with Anaheim. Why is Paetch even here. He'd clear waivers and be sent down. Must be a love affair with Lindy. Just thinking: Mair failed his physical and didn't get suspended like Numminendid. Numminens situation was life threatening. Darcy, you suck!
10/02/2009 1:05PM
Myers Paired With Tallinder
Tallinder will be a good excuse to send Myers back to juniors. Pair Tyler with Rivet Lindy. (fool)
10/02/2009 2:07PM
Lindy
What's my line? I never know who I'm playing with. How can I build a chemistry with same linemates? Shuffle out of the playoffs. Thats the problem here. Didn't the Sabres have four solid lines in the 70's and the same defense pairings? Those were thedays you'd know we would win and know we'd make the playoffs.
10/02/2009 2:22PM
Re: Re: On Cowan
why does everyone think brian burke is the second coming of ken holland? HE WON ONE CUP WITH A TEAM HE INHERITED! lame analysis too...appears the running of the goaltender didnt do much as the leafs lost the game. i cant stand these morons like you that take everything at face value. the leafs are not a playoff team.
10/02/2009 2:32PM
RE: Myers Paired With Tallinder
You're exactly right. Let's breakup our top defensive pair of Butler and Rivet just so we can keep Myers here. Who cares if both Myers and Rivet are right-handed and play on the right side of the ice. Sounds like a great plan.
10/02/2009 2:42PM
Panthers?
No mention of them in the article, and then they show up in 14th in the predictions? I think they still play well enough to be on that bubble. Maybe even sneak in. The East is a crapshoot after the top 4 seeds.
10/02/2009 2:43PM
the gaybres
You guys are kidding yourselves if you think this team is a playoff team...good luck
10/02/2009 8:14PM
KEEP TALKING
All you people are a bunch of bandwagon bums. All these predictions are garbage. The question isn't whether the Sabres make the playoffs...but do they take home the cup? Washington is a one man show, Boston is a joke who had a good year, and Philidelphia can try to buy more players this year but will have the same results as years past. NO DOUBT...Sabres top 4. In fact, the Sabres will be so good that Barry Melrose will actually take a second from talking about Sidney Crapsby and start talking about my Sabres. Get on while you still can!!!
10/02/2009 8:15PM
keep on talking...
All these predictions are garbage. The question isn't whether the Sabres make the playoffs...but do they take home the cup? Washington is a one man show, Boston is a joke who had a good year, and Philidelphia can try to buy more players this year but will have the same results as years past. NO DOUBT...Sabres top 4. In fact, the Sabres will be so good that Barry Melrose will actually take a second from talking about Sidney Crapsby and start talking about my Sabres. Get on while you still can!!!
10/02/2009 8:48PM
come on now
how much is that paycheck from paychex? No wonder the new fence!!
10/03/2009 6:32AM
RE:Paille
Has anyone ever heard of the saying,"your only as good as the people that surround you" I think Danny can have a breakout yr as long as he has the right linemates.The guy can score goals,just needs to pick up his game and play with a consistent line.Met the guy yesturday,nice well rounded young man,very polite and very eager to start the season.Just got married,so maybe maturity will take part,in picking up his game.Good luck Dan,and heres hopeing for a great season.
10/03/2009 11:45AM
Hope springs eternal.........
But the truth is will Lindy leave the lines alone to get a feel for each other or will he continue to endlessly reshuffle. Myers needs to play every game right off the bat, no matter what. Lindy messes around too much with the kids.
10/03/2009 1:55PM
Dilusional
The Sabres will finish 4th in the division, 10th overall. They have done NOTHING to improve this team.
10/05/2009 11:39AM
Sabres Playoff Bound
I truly believe if Miller didn't get injured last year we would of made the playoffs probably 7th or 8th place,but this year with a healthy Miller and Vanek, plus the added grit of Grier & Monador Buffalo should without a doubt in my mind, make the playoffs in 5th or 6th place so GO SABRES! Prove the naysayers wrong, and take your rightful place in the Top 8 of the Eastern Conference.
To prepare you for the WGR Celebrity Golf Tournament 2008, this video focuses on Hole 1 at Tri-County Country Club's course. Video hosts Jeremy White and Steve Warzala will share each hole's layout and strategy tips.; Golf; WGR; Jeremy White; Tri-County Country Club; Steve Warzala; To prepare you for the WGR Celebrity Golf Tournament 2008, this video focuses on Hole 2 at Tri-County Country Club's course. Video hosts Jeremy White and Steve Warzala will share each hole's layout and strategy tips.; tournament; WGR; Jeremy White; Golf; Tri-County Country Club; Steve Warzala; To prepare you for the WGR Celebrity Golf Tournament 2008, this video focuses on Hole 3 at Tri-County Country Club's course. Video hosts Jeremy White and Steve Warzala will share each hole's layout and strategy tips.; Golf; WGR; Jeremy White; Tri-County Country Club; Steve Warzala; To prepare you for the WGR Celebrity Golf Tournament 2008, this video focuses on Hole 4 at Tri-County Country Club's course. Video hosts Jeremy White and Steve Warzala will share each hole's layout and strategy.; To prepare you for the WGR Celebrity Golf Tournament 2008, this video focuses on Hole 5 at Tri-County Country Club's course. Video hosts Jeremy White and Steve Warzala will share each hole's layout and strategy.; Golf; WGR; Jeremy White; Tri-County Country Club; Steve Warzala; To prepare you for the WGR Celebrity Golf Tournament 2008, this video focuses on Hole 6 at Tri-County Country Club's course. Video hosts Jeremy White and Steve Warzala will share each hole's layout and strategy.; Golf; WGR; Jeremy White; Tri-County Country Club; Steve Warzala; To prepare you for the WGR Celebrity Golf Tournament 2008, this video focuses on Hole 7 at Tri-County Country Club's course. Video hosts Jeremy White and Steve Warzala will share each hole's layout and strategy.; Golf; WGR; Jeremy White; Tri-County Country Club; Steve Warzala; To prepare you for the WGR Celebrity Golf Tournament 2008, this video focuses on Hole 8 at Tri-County Country Club's course. Video hosts Jeremy White and Steve Warzala will share each hole's layout and strategy.; Golf; WGR; Jeremy White; Tri-County Country Club; Steve Warzala;
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