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CAPACCIO: Fitz and the deep ball: What the numbers say



We all know one of the problems that plagues the Bills consistency on offense is the inability for Ryan Fitzpatrick to hit the deep ball.  Even just the willingness to throw it has been an issue, as teams don't respect the Bills ability to do it, so they focus on taking away the short passing game.

 

Here is the average of the length of each of Fitz's passes traveled through the air.  This means from the point of the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was either caught, intercepted, or fell to the earth incomplete.  Also included is how far only his completions traveled, from the line of scrimmage to the player who caught it.  The numbers and NFL ranks for each underscore both issues even further.  

 

Along with Fitz's numbers and rankings for this season, I listed the same data for the previous five Bills seasons and their primary QB that year (Fitz, Trent Edwards, and JP Losman), as well as the two years Tarvaris Jackson was his team's primary QB (2011 Seattle and 2007 Minnesota):

 

Numbers can say different things to different people.  There are very successful quarterbacks (or teams of those QBs) ranked near the bottom of both lists, as you'll see.  So, you can look at both charts and make your own conclusions about what this data means for Fitz, the Bills offense, and the team overall.

Note: Each list ranks 33 QBs because both Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker are included for Tennessee:

 

Sorted by Average Length of All Passes:



QB Avg. Length all passes NFL Rank Avg. Length Completions Only NFL Rank
Wilson 10.47 1 8.01 5
Flacco 10.10 2 7.39 11
Luck 10.09 3 8.54 3
Vick 10.02 4 7.85 8
Sanchez 9.58 5 8.66 2
Cutler 9.57 6 7.92 7
Freeman 9.43 7 8.76 1
E. Manning 9.17 8 8.20 4
Romo 9.15 9 6.71 14
Brady 8.89 10 6.44 20
Newton 8.86 11 7.97 6
Bradford 8.57 12 7.24 12
Ryan 8.44 13 6.88 13
Palmer 8.32 14 6.30 22
Dalton 8.26 15 6.28 23
A. Smith 8.06 16 6.59 15T
Tannehill 8.05 17 7.55 10
Weeden 8.04 18 5.31 29
Rodgers 8.00 19 6.09 24
Griffin 7.99 20T 5.90 27
Stafford 7.99 20T 6.05 25
Schaub 7.94 22 6.59 15T
Brees 7.93 23 7.67 9
Roethlisberger 7.91 24 5.68 28
Kolb 7.88 25 6.43 21
Cassel 7.87 26 6.46 19
Locker 7.85 27 6.57 17
P. Manning 7.82 28 6.47 18
Rivers 7.69 29 4.87 31
Gabbert 7.51 30 5.98 26
Fitzpatrick 7.44 31 4.83 32
Hasselbeck 7.31 32 5.16 30
Ponder 6.01 33 4.03 33
 
Sorted by Average Length of Completions only:

QB Avg. Length all passes NFL Rank Avg. Length Completions Only NFL Rank
Freeman 9.43 7 8.76 1
Sanchez 9.58 5 8.66 2
Luck 10.09 3 8.54 3
E. Manning 9.17 8 8.20 4
Wilson 10.47 1 8.01 5
Newton 8.86 11 7.97 6
Cutler 9.57 6 7.92 7
Vick 10.02 4 7.85 8
Brees 7.93 23 7.67 9
Tannehill 8.05 17 7.55 10
Flacco 10.10 2 7.39 11
Bradford 8.57 12 7.24 12
Ryan 8.44 13 6.88 13
Romo 9.15 9 6.71 14
A. Smith 8.06 16 6.59 15T
Schaub 7.94 22 6.59 15T
Locker 7.85 27 6.57 17
P. Manning 7.82 28 6.47 18
Cassel 7.87 26 6.46 19
Brady 8.89 10 6.44 20
Kolb 7.88 25 6.43 21
Palmer 8.32 14 6.30 22
Dalton 8.26 15 6.28 23
Rodgers 8.00 19 6.09 24
Stafford 7.99 20T 6.05 25
Gabbert 7.51 30 5.98 26
Griffin 7.99 20T 5.90 27
Roethlisberger 7.91 24 5.68 28
Weeden 8.04 18 5.31 29
Hasselbeck 7.31 32 5.16 30
Rivers 7.69 29 4.87 31
Fitzpatrick 7.44 31 4.83 32
Ponder 6.01 33 4.03 33

Bills QBs and Ranks:

 
QB, Year Avg. Length all passes NFL Rank Avg. Length Completions Only NFL Rank
Fitz 2012 7.44 31 4.83 32
Fitz 2011 7.58 31 5.57 32
Fitz 2010 9.01 12 7.08 7T
Fitz 2009 9.56 3 6.35 20
Edwards 2008 7.28 30 6.49 19
Edwards 2007 7.20 31 5.51 29
Losman 2006 8.93 15 6.79 16
T. Jackson 2011 (SEA) 8.82 17 6.38 26
T. Jackson 2007 (MIN) 9.60 2 6.25 25

So, Fitzpatrick ranks 31st in the average length of all his passes this season, and 32nd (out of 33 for both) in the average length of his completions.  And that's exactly where he fell in both categories last season, also out of 33 QBs.  

There's a lot to digest up there.  So, again, considering there are more successful and less successful QBs who fall along different parts of the spectrum, you can interpret the numbers however you wish based upon all the data you see.
Follow me on twitter: @SalSports

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