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CAPACCIO: Football Friday Flurry Week 12



How do you start a movement?  I’ve never done it.  But I feel compelled.
 
I want over 70,000 people to do the same thing.
 
No, not this:

 

THIS:

 
 
 
How great does that sound?  It’s orchestrated.  It’s loud.  It’s in sync.
 
Now that Chan Gailey has said CJ Spiller will start and get the majority of snaps at running back, who knows what thrills we may see from him going forward?   Of course, without wins, no matter what he does will be for nothing as far as the Bills season is concerned.  But if the Bills can get this one at Indy on Sunday, this chant needs to be a part of what happens the following week at The Ralph the next week. 
 
Maybe it will keep reminding Chan Gailey to feed Spiller the rock?  Maybe it will give #28 even more of a purpose to run faster and harder?  Maybe it will just sound really, really cool? 
 
Who’s in?  Who’s getting it started?
 
More on the Bills at Colts game below, but first…..
 
 
3 Other Must-See NFL Games For Week 12:
 
Falcons at Buccaneers: If I asked you now which QB from the class of 2009 you’d take first, would you say Matthew Stafford (#1 overall), Mark Sanchez (5), or Josh Freeman (17)?  It very well may be Freeman.  He’s having a terrific season.  21 TDs, only 7 INTs.  His team has won five of their last six and is very much in the NFC playoff race.  The Bucs still have an outside shot to catch the Falcons for the division lead, but they’d absolutely have to win this one to pull within two games.  They do play each other again in week 17.  Matt Ryan did throw 5 picks last week, but otherwise is having an outstanding season himself.  Ryan (#3 overall in 2008), has thrown 20 TDs, leads the NFL with 3072 yards passing, and is 3rd in the league completing 67.5% of his passes.  And, of course, he’s led his team to the best record in the NFC at 9-1.
 
49ers at Saints: This game may be worth watching just to se what happens at the QB position for San Francisco.  If Alex Smith starts, can he show he deserves to keep his job?  If it’s Colin Kaepernick, how will he be able to handle a road game in a dome against a team fighting for its playoff lives?  The Saints are hot.  After starting 0-4, they’re now 5-5.  Drew Brees is a lot more than hot.  In fact, he’s a towering inferno over his last three games.  In that span, he’s 62-for-86 (72%) with 8 TDs and 1 INT with a QB rating of 124.95.  The Niners are trying to catch the Falcons for the #1 seed and home-field throughout the NFC playoffs.  With the Lions and Cowboys both losing Thursday, the Saints are only a game back of the Vikings, Seahawks, and Buccaneers for the final playoff spot in the conference.
 
Packers at Giants: Suddenly, the Giants are in a divisional race.  With their win Thursday, the Redskins are just a game and a half back of New York and the two teams play each other next week.  The G-Men better get their defensive issues resolved quickly.  They’ve allowed 102 points over their last four games.  That’s dangerous headed into this one because the Packers are averaging over 26 per game and have scored 31 or more in three of their past five.  In his past 7, Aaron Rodgers is 6-1 and has 24 TDs, 4 INTs, and a 117 rating.   
 
 
WHY SO SERIOUS?!
 
Come meet Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson and linebacker Arthur Moats.  (Oh….and me!)  We’ll be taping this week’s Out of Bounds TV show at JP Bullfeathers, 1010 Elmwood Avenue in the heart of the Elmwood Village in Buffalo.  Moats is my co-host and Johnson is this week’s guest.  The show tapes Monday night at 7pm and afterward, both Arthur and Stevie will stick around to take pictures with and sign autographs for fans.  We’ve had some nice crowds the past few weeks and everyone’s had a great time.  So, hope to see you there Monday night!

 

 
 
NFL Fact Hopefully Not Only I Find Interesting:
 
Cincinnati wide receiver A.J. Green has at least one touchdown catch in each of his past nine games this season. With a touchdown reception against Oakland on Sunday, Green would tie for the fourth-longest streak in NFL history.
Pro Football Hall of Famer Jerry Rice holds the record with a touchdown catch in 13 consecutive games, a streak that began in 1986 and ended in 1987
 
 
Pooch Update:
 
I had a losing week in my “3 Dog Saturday” selections on Sports Talk Saturday.  Not horrible, but I was 1-2 last week, which puts me at 19-14 on the season and still five-games over .500 and pretty good overall.  I’ve had four 3-0 weeks this season and am looking to have another one of those this weekend.  You can hear the picks every Saturday during the 1pm hour of the show, which runs 11am-2pm.
 
 
3 College Games Worth Your Time:
 
Notre Dame at USC: Everyone knows what’s at stake here.  The Irish are #1 for the first time ever in the BCS Standings.  The last tie they were ranked number-one in the AP poll was late 1993.  Ironically, that run at #1 lasted only one week.  The Irish didn’t handle the top spot well when they finally earned it that season.  A win here and they’ll play in the BCS National Championship Game.  A loss and their many critics will say how right they were that ND wasn’t that good to begin with.  The Domers get a break by facing USC backup QB and freshman Max Wittek.  A win by the Trojans would make their season.  It’s been incredible disappointing so far.  Wittek still has great weapons, especially wide receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods.  If he can just get the ball away and make the right reads, those guys will put a lot of pressure on the Notre Dame defense.  But, of course, that defense is ranked 6th in all of college football.  The Trojans are 12-5-1 against Notre Dame since that last Irish number one ranking.
 
Michigan at Ohio State:  It’s not Woody Hayes against Bo Schembechler now.  But one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports has been rejuvenated with both teams in the top-20.  Ohio State is ineligible for any postseason games, including the Big Ten Championship game and all bowls.  That means they’re ineligible for the BCS title, even though they’re 11-0.  But they can still share a piece of the national championship because the AP voters can vote them #1 if they desire.  Currently they’re ranked fourth in the AP poll.  The game will probably come down to how well Michigan can stop Ohio State’s run game, 9th best in the nation.  The Buckeyes won’t be able to pass.  The Wolverines are tops in the country defending through the air, allowing only 152.1 passing yards a game.

 
Florida at Florida State: I lived in the Sunshine State for 16 years.  I can tell you the college football fans there treat this game just like those in Ohio and Michigan treat the Ohio State/Michigan game.  It’s just not as relevant a rivalry on the national scale.  Through the 1990s and into the early 2000s the game resonated a lot louder throughout the whole country, but that’s because it often determined if one of the teams would have a shot to play for a national championship.  Now, they’re both in the top-10 again and a lot is at stake.  Florida can still sneak its way into the BCS title game with a win and some help.  Florida State has already clinched a spot in the ACC title game but still has plenty to play for.  The Seminoles have the top-ranked defense in the entire country.  The Gators are leading this overall series 33-21-2.  They’re also 12-11-1 in Tallahassee.   
 
 
NFL Fact Hopefully Not Only I Find Interesting Part II:
 
Thursday night, Julian Edelman became the 4th player in NFL history with a receiving TD, punt return TD, and fumble return TD in a season. The last player to do it was Terrence Wilkins in 1999.
 

Bills at Colts:
 
This game is all about two things:
1.       1. Stopping Andrew Luck and the Colts passing game;
2.       2. Running the ball on the Colts defense.
 
Let’s take #1 first.  Indy can run the ball a little bit.  But their run game is still set up by Luck throwing it.  They’re 14th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, but Luck is 3rd overall averaging over 41 attempts a game!  I expect the Bills to play plenty of nickel defense against Luck, force him to check out of some passes and make the Colts run the ball.  Bryan Scott should see plenty of snaps.  Of course, the last time the Bills tried this approach, the Patriots rang up records against them.  But the Colts can’t run like the Pats and as good as Luck has been as a rookie, he’s certainly not Tom Brady. 
 
The big matchup will be Stephon Gilmore against Reggie Wayne.  Gilmore will most likely follow Wayne all over the field and the Bills will probably often give him some safety help.  But when they don’t and the rookie has to defend the veteran receiver on an island, if he loses more snaps than he wins, there’s almost no way the Bills can win the game.  Luck will find Wayne over and over.
 
Now on to #2.  It’s all about Spiller.  He’s still tops in the NFL averaging 6.3 yards per carry.  He’ll get more of those carries now, even with Fred Jackson back.  But the Bills still need Jackson, especially on short-yardage situations.  The Bills have been awful this season running the ball when they need just a yard or two for a first down.  And Jackson’s still a better pass-blocker than Spiller.
 
But the CJ-era truly begins Sunday, and Spiller will definitely have his chances to break something long.  The Colts are 22nd overall in rushing defense, but are 29th in the league allowing 4.68 yards per play.  They’ve also allowed nine carries of 20 yards or more, tied for 6th most in the league, and four run plays of 40 yards or more.  That’s tied for the 2nd most in the NFL.
 
So, all the Bills have to do is stick to that formula.  If they don’t, say good-bye to any of the slim playoff hopes they had.  If they do, say hello to this next week:

 
 
Bills 31-23.

Follow me on twitter: @SalSports

When assessing the Bills defense, what has been the biggest problem?
  It was mostly coaching
  It was mostly a lack of talent
  It was 50/50 coaching and talent
 
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