And they got some help from the Tennessee Titans with their win over the New York Jets on Monday night. It has moved the Bills up to 7th overall. Here is the current draft order:
**Opponent strength of schedule is used for tiebreakers, and is the number you see after the record
1) Kansas City 2-12 (.500)
2) Jacksonville 2-12 (.540)
3) Oakland 4-10 (.455)
4) Philadelphia 4-10 (.513)
5) Detroit 4-10 (.567)
6) San Diego 5-9 (.460)
7) Buffalo 5-9 (.491)
8) Cleveland 5-9 (.500)
9t) Tennessee 5-9 (.513)
9t) Carolina 5-9 (.513)
11) Arizona 5-9 (.558)
The best case scenario for the Bills in April would be to pick 3rd overall. 1st and 2nd overall are already out of reach. Buffalo would need a ton of help for a third overall pick, however. Here's what the teams in front of them have for their final two weeks.
Oakland 4-10 (3rd)
Opponent Strength of Schedule: 0.455
Final Two Opponents: Carolina (5-9), San Diego (5-9)
Comments: If Oakland defeats Carolina, the winner of San Diego/Oakland would move the Bills up a spot regardless of the outcome. The Bills cannot pass the Raiders unless the latter wins out and the former loses out.
Philadelphia 4-10 (4th)
Opponent Strength of Schedule: 0.513
Final Two Opponents: Washington (8-6), New York Giants (8-6)
Comments: Just one win for the Eagles over their final two games, coupled with a pair of Buffalo losses will likely move the Bills up another spot.
Detroit 4-10 (5th)
Opponent Strength of Schedule: 0.567
Final Two Opponents: Atlanta (12-2), Chicago (8-6)
Comments: If the Detroit Lions somehow pull the upset in one of the last two weeks, the Bills are guaranteed to pass them with two straight losses.
San Diego 5-9 (6th)
Opponent Strength of Schedule: 0.460
Final Two Opponents: New York Jets (6-7), Oakland Raiders (4-10)
Comments: The Bills will not pass San Diego in the draft tiebreaker, so they need the Chargers to win once over their final two games. The ideal setting for Buffalo, if they lose out, would be if San Diego beats the New York Jets, Oakland defeats Carolina and then the Raiders beat the Chargers in Week 17. That would move up the Bills two spots.
Cleveland 5-9 (8th)
Opponent Strength of Schedule: 0.500
Final Two Opponents: Denver (11-3), Pittsburgh (7-7)
Comments: I've listed the Browns because they are within earshot of the Bills for tiebreaking purposes. The collective Bills schedule has a record of 109-113-2 currently, while the Browns are at 112-112. That is a small margin that has been closing each of the last two weeks. To ward off the Browns, the Bills need their opponents to keep losing through the final two weeks of the season.
As you can see, there are still a lot of variables, but the Bills can get all the way up to third overall if they get some help along the way.