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Advanced Stats Say O'Reilly Is A Match Made in Hockey Heaven



@matthewwgr Reporting
Matthew Coller


 

The solution to the Buffalo Sabres' biggest weakness is out there. Right now. He's available. At this moment. Right now!

His name is Ryan O'Reilly and he's a match made in Hockey Heaven for the Sabres' Coach For Life Lindy Ruff.

O'Reilly is a 6-foot, 200-pound, 22-year-old, two-way center who scored 55 points for the Colorado Avalanche last season.

A contract dispute with the Avs has landed him on the trading block.

The Sabres have two centers – Cody Hodgson and Tyler Ennis – who have both had moderate scoring success. But neither is a fit to be Ruff's No. 1 center.

The much-discussed system asks centers to play in both offensive and defensive situations. Hodgson's Offensive Zone Start Percentage is 50.3, Ennis's is 50.0. That means they are seeing identical time in both zones.

This is nothing new for Ruff and not unorthodox amongst NHL coaches. Last year, Derek Roy's O-Zone start percentage was 48.9 and Hodgson's 52.9. Some coaches split up players' roles into offensive and defensive. The Penguins start Evgeni Malkin in the offensive zone around 70 percent of the time and Chris Kunitz close to 30 percent. That's not the way Ruff likes to handle his assignments. And there's nothing wrong with that – if his personnel fits.

But Hodgson and Ennis are offensive-minded centers.

Last season, when Ennis was seeing his most success, his O-Zone Start % was 57.5 and his Quality of Competition faced ranked 12th amongst Sabres' forwards. This year, Ruff has still tried to keep him off the ice against the league's best. Ennis ranks 8th on the team in QoC, but he's been used equally in offensive and defensive situations.

As for Hodgson, he has been on the ice for 16 of the Sabres' 40 even-strength goals allowed. According to stats.hockeyanalysis.com, he has the worst On-Ice Goals Against rate in the NHL. He also has a negative Corsi rating at Even Strength, which is calculated by taking shots for vs. shots against per 60 minutes while he is on the ice. So, while he's seemed a perfect fit for Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek, the young center has struggled at times lining up in his own zone.

In Buffalo last season, Hodgson was on the ice for 18 of the Sabres’ 44 goals against. That’s 41% of them. So it isn't exactly looking like a small sample size anomaly.

Hodgson has also faced the toughest competition of any Sabre. A lot to take on for a center that Canucks coach Alain Vigneault said he “couldn't trust” in his own zone.

While Hodgson and Ennis are young and have created goals on the offensive end, it's clear the Sabres are in need of a center who can play against the toughest assignments and still create and score. Unless they want to let 19 and 63 work it out and continue to give up goals at an alarming rate, that is. But you get the feeling the Sabres want to win now.

Enter: Ryan O'Reilly.

He may be around the same age as Hodgson and Ennis, but his skill set is a much better fit for the Sabres' coach. O'Reilly is built in the mold of a Michael Peca or Chris Drury – he can play in all situations including offensive, defensive, power play, penalty kill and take on the league's best competition each night.

Last season, at age 21, he faced the second best competition on the Avalanche only trailing Gabriel Landeskog and performed exceptionally. When he was on the ice, his team was +11.98 shots per 60 minutes, when he was off the ice -0.46.

Keeping shots away from the net has been the Sabres' biggest struggle. They ranked 30th in the league in shots against per game with 33.9 – a rate they can not keep up if they plan to climb the Eastern Conference ranks. When O'Reilly was on the ice last season, the Avs allowed 25.3 shots per 60 minutes.

The young Avs center scored at an impressive rate despite some bad luck. His PDO – a stat designed to gauge how much other players such as teammates and opponents goalies' performance may have affected scoring – was below average. Meaning, he's likely to score even more than the 55 points he posted last season.

Did I mention O'Reilly's only 22?

Don't believe the stats? Hockey Prospectus scouting writer Corey Pronman named O'Reilly the 16th best NHL player under 23.

Pronman wrote: “O'Reilly became a significant two-way force this year while playing against top players and driving possession at a high level.”

Possession? Oh, the Sabres rank 27th in the NHL in that category and are dying for help.

The drawback, undoubtedly, is the price and his contract. However, the Sabres have defensive prospects such as Brayden McNabb and Mark Pysyk who could be moved as well as either Hodgson or Ennis and draft picks. The reported price is an NHL player and a highly-rated prospect. Done. As for his asking price of $5 million. Do it.

How important is it to have a two-way center in the NHL? The last five Cup winning centers are Anze Kopitar, Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews, Sidney Crosby and Pavel Datsyuk. There's no replacing a No. 1 center and Ryan O'Reilly could be the next franchise No. 1 for the Sabres...if Darcy Regier can pull the trigger, that is.

 

Filed Under :  
Topics : Sports
Social :
Locations : Buffalo
People : Alain Vigneault, Anze Kopitar, Brayden McNabb, Chris Drury, Chris Kunitz, Cody Hodgson, Corey Pronman, Darcy Regier, Derek Roy, Evgeni Malkin, Gabriel Landeskog, Jason Pominville, Jonathan Toews, Mark Pysyk, Patrice Bergeron, Pavel Datsyuk, Sidney Crosby, Thomas Vanek, Tyler Ennis
02/14/2013 1:02AM
Advanced Stats Say O'Reilly Is A Match Made in Hockey Heaven
Please enter your comments below.
02/14/2013 3:36AM
Yeah...
Lets keep throwing away talented players to get more mediocre players that fit ruffs 'system' instead of getting rid of the REAL problem - ruff and his lousy system. Vanek isn't a great two way player either, maybe we should deal him too since all he does is create offense. I remember the same criticisms about roy - thank god we god rid of him for the great two way play of ott, clearly it has worked wonders.
02/14/2013 4:22AM
Nothing would improve this team like a change of management would.
I like O'Reilly, a lot. But I honestly can't see a 22yr old coming here and changing this mess. This will improve, only from top down change. Ruff, Regier, Black, and, hate to say it, maybe Pegula.
02/14/2013 5:06AM
Check it out
Does DR know who this guy is? Has he seen any VHS tape of him?
02/14/2013 6:01AM
Bumsfan
If this move it made it's only because Darcy and Linde aren't going anywhere.
02/14/2013 6:11AM
go ahead Darcy
bring him here so Ruff can ruin him as well. The problem isnt the players it's Ruff's system. It sets players up for failure. Look at this team,it has zero success. Hockey Heaven? Yeah this is hockey heaven alright. Its where you come and play and your skills die.
02/14/2013 6:13AM
Please
... you guys at WGR are starting to sound like the "Fans" who pass notes to each other on TBD and Sabres Space... in the history of organized sports how many times have an "objective observer" come out of the stands to lead a professional team to champion status? They is no magic bullet/one roster move that will cure what ails this organization.
02/14/2013 7:18AM
Fire Ruff and Regier
and watch the team improve, period. End of story. Oh wait Terry Pegula might cry like a baby if so. "Perrault youre my hero." boo hoo. Well Terry youre not my hero
02/14/2013 7:40AM
Re:Nothing would improve...
Without Terry Pegula, you most likely don't have a hockey team. Use your head. The man has owned the Sabres for less than 24 months. He'll get it. You don't become a winning franchise just because you have lots of money. He'll learn how to win. It took Jeremy Jacobs 40 years before he won his first Cup. Should we have to wait that long? No. But to bad mouth this guy? Wrong, wrong, wrong.
02/14/2013 7:44AM
O'Reilly
Yes, PLEASE!!! Darcy, make this happen. The 2nd coming of Chris Drury. A leader, on and off the ice. Hey, I can dream, can't I?
02/14/2013 7:52AM
Do IT!!!
Great analysis; the only other question I would have liked to have answered is, how is he at face-offs? Everything else is pointing towards executing a deal.
02/14/2013 8:03AM
No energy
The team has no energy, especially in the 3rd. It could be all the penalties but will one player change that?
02/14/2013 8:36AM
Aren't we forgetting the obvious?
Ruff ruins players. Period. I understand that the wonderfull staff at 'GR can't keep pointing out that Regier and Ruff have to go and never will, but the "what can be done" thinking isn't helping either as it completely ignores the problem: Regier and Ruff HAVE TO GO! Shuffling existing players around, drafting falling Russians, trading for youth and destroying their natural abilities? What difference does it make as to the "how" or "what" caused/causes the individual to be sucked into the black hole known as Buffalo Sabres hockey? Bottom line is that Regier and Ruff will be here and that negates anything meaningful in the present and future discussions that anyone may have. Still waiting on the Press Conference proclaiming Ruff as "Coach for Life."
02/14/2013 8:46AM
o'really
I've been watching this O'Reilly ordeal since the start, and i can't believe Colorado is unwilling to give him the 5 mil for a 22y.o. center that would improve the team. That being said i wouldnt want to deal Cody Hodgeson for him, his upside is too much to get rid of, however knowing Darcy half his team is as good or better than O'Reilly. If I could be GM I would be throwing in offers first one Stafford/ or ENNIS and Weber with a 3rd rnd. pick!! Got to give a little more than you want to steal this kid!!!
02/14/2013 8:50AM
WGR??
I never get my posts up maybe they are too long?? Either way i think you have to try and steal this kid, too many other teams want this guy and the window of opportunity isnt going to be long so deal off Leapold or Weber, with Stafford or Ennis. OR how about McNabb and Stafford w/ a 2nd rd pick. Either way no hope we'll get him DARCY holds his team talent way too high up to even talk trades w/ teams!
02/14/2013 8:53AM
Trade Stafford and Sekera then...
Get this guy. Nuttin' further.
02/14/2013 9:08AM
gunman
something "should" happen. o'reilly statistically looks like a big plus indeed, but others have written about the "culture" in sabreland...would that kill his potential? how does a team not take something from a huge comeback win on the road (Boston) and lose three straight afterwards? in my opinion, that is a failure to motivate--a coaching thing.from the "somebody-do-SOMEthing department," is there anyone in hockey heaven who has a finger on the trigger??
02/14/2013 9:08AM
RE: Nothing would improve...
Really? Three years ago this town was dreaming of an owner like Pegula. It doesn't get any better. I think there is a case for changing coaches. Regier? He now is not restriced financially. I believe his hands were tied and he could not make the moves he wanted to with past owners. He has made some great trades in the past. Ennis, Brennan and a third round pick for the rights to negotiate with O'Reilly.
02/14/2013 9:12AM
nothing would improve
Get rid of Pegula? You sir are an idiot. Probably the same idiot who called Ted and asked him if he was blind and then asked if he was stupid.
02/14/2013 9:18AM
rangers
if anybody gets him it will probably be the NY Rangers. They seem to get anybody they want and they're struggling
02/14/2013 9:22AM
will never happen
why even bother to talk about something that will never happen. Darcy will never give up any of his prize young prospects. Hasnt happened since hes been here really. I was surprised when he shipped out Kassian last yr,but getting rid of a prospect and a current player on the roster is a little to much to actually happen. Maybe a player and a draft pick,high draft pick,but nobody down in Rochester.
02/14/2013 9:25AM
Fire Darcy
Darcy thinks Jochen Hect is a good hockey player. Zero goals.
02/14/2013 9:28AM
So now it's Hodson?
Let's see: Roy, Boyes, Torres, Adam, Kassian, Macarthur... Somebody sure picks a lot of losers or ruins good players.
02/14/2013 9:32AM
Do It!
Two-way centers are near impossible to get via trades these days, and to get a good one so early in his career is insane. Stafford and Armia, plus a top draft pick. I think they are solid defensively, but if they want Brennan or Sekera, fine - just give us a depth D-man as a throw-in for Rochester. Colorado has a lot of centers, so I don't think we'd even have to offer Hodgson or Ennis, but if we do then Ennis only. Hodgson has already improved dramatically, and another year or two should solidify his overall game. Can't quit on him.
02/14/2013 9:38AM
Change Is Good
After watching the first 14 games this season, can anyone disagree that any change this team makes would be advantagious? It's getting real tiring watching this group of misfits actually try and make a crisp pass out of their own zone only to turn it over before a second pass is completed. I'm for trying O'Reilly at the expense of anybody on this roster, especially because Mr. Pegula has the $$$ to pay them? After all, aren't both Buffalos pro teams constantly searching for players to actually make their teams respectable?
02/14/2013 9:47AM
I like O'Reilly
But how many more years do we have to put up with trying to find the perfect player that will fit Lindy's "Tunnel Vision" system? We need a coach who will change the system to match what he has for a roster, rather than forcing it down their throats.
02/14/2013 10:01AM
getting rid of pegula?
maybe you shouldnt post things at 4:22am .....
02/14/2013 10:27AM
DR is unaware of any player that could help this team
According to Darcy, the Sabres have the top players any team could wish for. All they need is a little more time playing together.
02/14/2013 10:38AM
Go for it!!!!
He sure wud be great addition and wud help getting rid of some of junk the Sabres have lying (skating) around...
02/14/2013 10:40AM
RE: Check it out
Of course Darcy knows who this guy is. Darcy will be used to set the contract value that a respectable NHL team will match. This team can do the athletes a favor and trade all of them for fourth rounders. That way players like Vanek, Miller, Myers and whomever else can make something of their remaining years instead of drying up like prunes under this stalemate regime. The team can then achieve the same results in the standings without spending a lot of money. The payroll savings can be used for additional statues, scoreboards, and cupholders to improve the fan experience.
02/14/2013 10:40AM
WOW
Yeah lets put down Cody and Tyler when they are still developing! People seem to forget how young these guys are. Its clearly their fault the ENTIRE team isn't producing. I have to disagree with this article. Our coach is the major problem not these two centers.
02/14/2013 10:58AM
MAKE IT HAPPEN!!
Why is management waiting !! ugh!!
02/14/2013 11:04AM
easy on the stats dude
can the guy play or not? your "advanced stats" don't count for anything come the home stretch, or the playoffs. Keep to baseball matthew.
02/14/2013 11:11AM
I Want A Trade...
But it may take the next 3 months for Regier to find the Av's number... that is if he wakes up from his long winters nap.
02/14/2013 11:23AM
Never Happen !!!!!!!!
DR will never give up what the Rookies will ask for this player. So this idea to help the Sabres is a moot point!!! UNFORTUNATELY !!!!!!!!!!!
02/14/2013 11:29AM
evidence of the bigger problem
If the case is that Ruff needs 2 way players to make his system work, why does Regier bother drafting or trading for anything else? Maybe this is the problem, Regier keeps bringing in square plugs to fit a round hole. Maybe we have two pretty good musicians that just don't make very good music together.
02/14/2013 11:39AM
Gusto Darcy, Gusto
Go for the gusto one more time. Make the necessary moves (although I would like to keep McNabb)to get this guy. The team is not going to make the playoff's the way it plays now as we need a two way center. Any additional scoring he brings will onlybe that much more help. We have plenty of D-men and draft picks. MAKE THE MOVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
02/14/2013 12:23PM
**NOTE**
comments above made by un-hockey-educated people who like to listen to them-selves talk BS!!
02/14/2013 12:43PM
Detroit maybe Pittsburgh?
I bet he's going to an organization that doesn't embrase mediocrity. It's nice to dream but get real. Even if by some miracle it did happen, Ruff's "system" has a way of diminishing talent. Diminishing returns, now that's something the "system" excells at.
02/14/2013 12:51PM
Read this....
You inflated him really well. However, Look up the blog post titled "Ryan O’Reilly: the counterargument" by Adrian Dater in the Denver post before you pull that trigger. I would provide a link, but of course, penetrode here won't allow a link in the comments. I'm not saying he COULDN'T blossom in to our new Drury. Unfortunately, he could also end up being another bum getting paid way too much for one good year.....
02/14/2013 12:57PM
RE: Note
That is a fair statement. But it doesn't take an ounce of education to recognize this team is terrible and in no way improved over last year.
02/14/2013 1:54PM
Devils picked up
Ponikarovsky for two late round picks. yes, he's a winger, but it goes to show that teams can get useable people in trades if they're willing to make them.
02/14/2013 3:58PM
Colorado LAUGHS at Hodgson AND Ennis TOGETHER!!
People around here get so deluded with this franchise of mediocrity... NO WAY Colorado trades a STUD like Orielly for 2 CREAMPUFFS!!!! WAKE UP!!!
02/14/2013 4:37PM
I'd say our roster shakes out like this...
Untouchables: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Mikhail Grigorenko, Zemgus Girgensons, Joel Armia, Corey Tropp, Marcus Foligno, Tyler Ennis, Nathan Gerbe, Cody Hodgson, Freddie Roy, Riley Boychuk, Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Myers, Brayden McNabb, Mark Pysyk, T.J. Brennan, Jake McCabe, Jerome Gauthier-Leduc, Connor Knapp, Andrei Makarov, Nathan Lieuwen. Key Trade-Bait through talented prospects: Logan Nelson, Christian Isackson, Kevin Sundher, Dan Catenacci, Phil Varone, Brad Navin, Justin Kea, Nick Crawford, Alex Biega, Brady Austin and David Leggio. Key Trade-Bait through veterans: Jochen Hecht, Patrick Kaleta, Ville Leino, Cody McCormick, Steve Ott, John Scott, Drew Stafford, Matt Ellis, Mark Mancari, Adam Pardy, Jordan Leopold, Robyn Regehr, Mike Weber, Alex Sulzer, Andrej Sekera and Jhonas Enroth. If the Sabres are ever going to win a Stanley Cup, it will be with this young core of "untouchables." I would hate to lose anyone from the top 2 groups...and I am uncertain where to put Ryan Miller. While he is the best Goalie we have, his play has dropped off and he is not geting any younger...if I could get something of value for him now, I would not hesitate to pull the trigger and start fresh.
02/14/2013 4:41PM
Pegula bought this team to be his personal hobby, not for the "people of WNY".
It's all talk. He has straight out said that regardless of the people paying $100 for a ticket, wanting change (after a very fair period of 15 years!) it's Regier & Ruff no matter what. Doesn't that clearly say that it does not matter what a huge majority of the fans want, we take what he gives. Think about that. The fans are NOT #1, in hockey heaven. And, to the lone coolaid drinker who tries to appear to be multiple posters, I post @ 4am because I am a Chef, I work until 2am many nights. You want to make some comments about that, narrow minded fool. Think before you make obnoxious statements like that, I suspect you are only 16, but let's try a little maturity.
02/14/2013 5:34PM
Darcy will not make the move!!!
This is sad a player out there that would be a good fit but I guarantee that the asking price is going to much for Darcy make the deal he will not part with these players. I actually fell down when he traded Roy, Buffalo fans and WGR550 this team will go no where with our current hockey department. I like Lindy but the time is now, not @ the end of the season, and Darcy a contract extension??? Seriously this really sucks I've had it!!! I'm calling Schopp and Bulldog and I'll let Mike prove me I'm wrong
02/14/2013 5:39PM
hecht, ellis, mccormick, scott
any gm or coach that would let these losers play on their team are hilarious. why do u think our players never get claimed off of waivers, because they are all terrible. unrelated but true, a player wont help this team, new staff will.
02/14/2013 7:19PM
Re: Devils picked up
Another boat missed by Regier. Ponikarovsky is better than Gerbe. Regier operates the same way he did when Tom G owned the team. What a joke.
02/14/2013 8:20PM
Help!!!!!!!!!!
PECA for Coach!!!
02/14/2013 9:25PM
O'Reilly? For Hodgson?
Didn't ALL the media say the same very good things abount Hodgson when we got him? Now look at him...he's like an extra man on the ice for the opposing team. He plays no defense, and doesn't always know where to be. Same for Foligno! LOST in Space (I mean ICE)
02/14/2013 10:44PM
Make The Trade
Here's a great treade to make. since Colorado is looking for a rostered player & a prospect, this is a trade that works for both sides &should be made in a heart beat, Stafford & Luke Adam (its obvious the Sabres have given up on him) to the Avalanche, for O'Reilly & a 3rd round pick.
02/15/2013 7:21AM
no o'reilly
sabs not doin it if they were it would have already been done were staying pat ridin the storm.
02/15/2013 7:38AM
different horse same jockey
Ok trade for O'Reilly, with Ruff still coaching he will just become anothertrade to nowwhere!! It takes "a team" to win a cup and this team does not embrace this concept. Bring on football ,hockey has already run it's course. Whatif? what if? that is all we hear from wgr and the Sabres. Over paid slackers will not win by any means. New shoes on a pig it is still a pig!!
02/15/2013 7:56AM
Somebody Has to Go!
Time to go Lindy!
02/15/2013 9:15AM
Real fan
People honestly turning on Pegula already?! The guy is pouring hundreds of millions of his own dollars into to making the city better. You know he wants to win, bad. Big surprise here, it's not easy to win the stanley cup! More changes will be madeand that's fine, but I certainly hope The Pegula family owns the team for the rest on my life as a real Sabres fan.
02/15/2013 9:15AM
Real fan
People honestly turning on Pegula already?! The guy is pouring hundreds of millions of his own dollars into to making the city better. You know he wants to win, bad. Big surprise here, it's not easy to win the stanley cup! More changes will be madeand that's fine, but I certainly hope The Pegula family owns the team for the rest on my life as a real Sabres fan.
02/15/2013 9:16AM
Real fan
People honestly turning on Pegula already?! The guy is pouring hundreds of millions of his own dollars into to making the city better. You know he wants to win, bad. Big surprise here, it's not easy to win the stanley cup! More changes will be madeand that's fine, but I certainly hope The Pegula family owns the team for the rest on my life as a real Sabres fan.
02/15/2013 11:48AM
The MOST HATED people in Buffalo
1. Lindy RUFF 2. Darcy Regier 3. T.Peg 4. sports media people for NOT doing their job! Must go after all management and Coaches when they fail.
02/15/2013 4:49PM
re: Make the trade!!???? Delerious Sabre fans...
Stafford, who currently has NO GOALS,and Adam who plays in the "AHL" for a proven STUD like Oreilly!!??? WHADDYA REALATED TO REGEIR!!???? WAKE UP nad get ready for golf... idiot.
02/16/2013 10:38AM
OH, OH, OH, O'REILLY
Not auto parts either. Ryan O'Reilly out of Colorado e4. Stay tuned for breaking news. More to come...
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