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Viewing Value - Clock ticking on Miller Time



 

It’s nothing new to suggest that an NHL team can survive without an “elite” goaltender, but with a little over a year on his contract, the Sabres are approaching a crossroads with Ryan Miller.  As the franchise looks to move forward, what’s the right move on Miller?  Jeremy White takes a crack at it...

 

Let’s treat a few things in this piece as constants.  

 

  1. Ryan Miller is a good goalie.
  2. The comment section of this piece will likely be dominated by a discussion of the first constant.

 

Ok, moving on.

 

Ryan Miller is a good goaltender but one has to ask...what’s the real value?  What’s the point in having a 6.25 million dollar goaltender when he’s frequently beaten by counterparts who make 1/2, 1/4, or even 1/8 his salary?

 

This isn’t about Miller, it’s about goaltending in the NHL.

 

You need good goaltending to win the Stanley Cup.  You might even need great goaltending.  You do not need the person that sits back between the pipes to be considered “elite” though.  

 

If you break it down in its simplest form, a goaltender’s job is to stop the other team from scoring.  Everything that you build around that player is to prevent the other team from getting shots on your goaltender.  Puck possession is the very root of this discussion and if you were designing a team you’d have a few different ways to do it.

 

#1 - You could sink a ton of money into your “last line of defense” and hope that he (in this case Miller) could bail you out when you make mistakes.

 

#2 - You could almost disregard the position (with the exception of keeping the hot guy just for continuity) and put all of your focus on making sure that your “last line of defense” is called upon as infrequently as possible.

 

Sign me up for a model that’s much closer to #2.

 

***

 

Ryan Miller is a good goaltender that’s frequently wasted on this team.  The Buffalo Sabres are currently 30th in the league in puck possession.  It’s not a surprise that they have the most losses in the NHL, and they sit near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  You can’t score if you don’t have the puck.  You can only be scored on when you don’t.  Pretty simple - have puck, will win.

 

The Sabres have faced backup goaltenders 11 times this season.  ELEVEN times in 24 games, and while the record is 6-5, let’s look at that a bit closer.

 

 

The Sabres have 6 wins against backups:

 

Montreal - Peter Budaj - 5-4 Shootout win

Boston - Anton Khudobin - 4-2 win

Florida - Scott Clemmensen - 3-2 shootout win (Theodore in relief)

TB - Mathieu Garon - 2-1 win

NJ - Johan Hedberg - 4-3 shootout win

Toronto - Ben Scrivens - 2-1 win

 

5 Losses:


Carolina -  Dan Ellis - 40 saves on 41 shots

Carolina - Justin Peters - 37 saves on 40 shots

Boston - Anton Khudobin - 25 saves on 26 shots

Washington - Michael Neuvirth - 22 saves on 24 shots

Toronto - Ben Scrivens - 31 saves on 32 shots

 

Let’s go simply on a point percentage: In their 11 of their games with the Sabres, the Island of misfit backups has picked up 13 of 22 potential points.  5 wins, and 3 shootout losses means that backup goaltenders have picked up 60% of the avaiable points in their games with the Sabres.

 

Ryan Miller played in every one of those games for Buffalo.  He picked up 12 points.

 

Backups - 13

Miller - 12

 

This is not about Miller.  The answers to the “WHY” of this are actually pretty easy to come up with:

 

Because the Sabres aren’t good...

Because the Sabres defense corps is a mess...

Because the other teams have elite centers..

Because....yadda yadda....

 

But every time that you say “The Sabres” you have to know that they are built with Ryan Miller as the biggest piece of that.  Struggles all over the ice lead to Miller not turning in the type of Win/Loss numbers that he should.

 

Again, I’m putting very very little of this on Miller.  I’m simply asking...what’s the advantage?

 

Tomorrow night the Devils will likely go to journeyman Johan Hedberg to face Miller.  Who has the advantage?

 

In net it’s the Sabres right?

On the ice, like so many of their matchups, it would appear it’s the opposition.

 

The reason for existence for this franchise is not to have the best goalie.  It’s to win.

 

***

 

So here we have the decision that the Sabres must make on Miller - Re-sign, trade, or let the contract expire.

 

Re-Sign - If the Sabres are to do this it likely wouldn’t be something that crushes the team on salary cap.  The Sabres spend 6.25 million on Miller, and don’t spend much on backup goaltender.  Truth is, the 2 goalie salaries combined for any given team in the NHL run from about 5-8 million for most teams.  Re-signing Miller would not put them in cap jail at all.

 

Trade - This might be the toughest to figure how it would go.  Does Miller have value around the league?  He’s MOST valuable to the Buffalo Sabres because of his brand.  He’s a name.  He’s well known throughout the league and if the Sabres traded him it would likely be viewed as giving up.  They’d trade away another great goaltender.  There would be some poking fun at the franchise for sure.  What’s he worth to...a team that contends this year?  Chances are if they’re contending they feel pretty good about their goaltending, right?  With Miller’s big salary comes the potential for cap jail for another team (if they’re adding him to the mix with a well paid goalie to begin with) and there’s another year left on the contract.  I think it’s more likely he’d have value as a rental next year.  Even then, I’m not convinced you could get very good return value for a goaltender who, for the most part, is only as good as the team in front of him (as so many are).  He’s a good goalie.  He might be one of the best.  What is a team going to give you for him?  If it’s a contending team....they’re not stripping elite forwards or D off the team to give to you.  It’s likely prospects that wouldn’t play in the playoffs, right?  Good enough value for you?

 

Let the contract expire - Self explanatory.  Delay your decision to the end of next year.  The Sabres could make this decision before next season though.  If Terry Pegula and Darcy Regier (if he’s here) have eyes on keeping Miller, my guess is that he’s signed well before he hits the market.  Book it.

 

***

 

The game has changed.  Between shot-blocking, defensive schemes, giant pads, obstruction, and everything else...goaltenders are being rendered almost irrelevant in a way.

 

It happened last night.  Four goals against in Carolina and the immediate breakdown is “Never had a chance on that one”.  It’s something that makes me think “Then why have a goalie” every time.

 

If the best in the world didn’t have a chance 4 times...how come these so-called scrubs seemed to have chances on all but 3.  

 

How does one of the best lose to the also-rans?  (I know, I know...see the excuse board up top...it’s never about the goalie, right?  That’s the point here.)

 

It’s quite possibly the biggest issue for the Sabres going into the offseason.  It’s going to take a GM to notice that you don’t build from the net out anymore.  You build the best team you can, and then toss your best option in goal.

 

Ryan Miller is a very good goaltender that could win a lot of games and take a good team to the next level.  Perhaps he could win a Cup.  With the way the team in front of him is currently constructed...he’ll never have a chance.

 

03/06/2013 3:50PM
Viewing Value - Clock ticking on Miller Time
Please enter your comments below.
03/06/2013 3:52PM
Who wrote this article
See Title
03/06/2013 4:09PM
Great point Jeremy
Agreed, most nights the Sabres dress one borderline #1 line, a 3rd line and two 4th lines. In today's NHL the most skilled and deepest teams are the ones on top regardless if they have an elite goaltender or not. Sadly Buffalo just doesn't have enough skill to hang with most clubs night in and night out.
03/06/2013 4:29PM
Miller Is A Good Goalie. Not Great.
Miller's terrific play in the last Olympics created a huge reputation for him that he really can't live up to. He's a star in the league off the ice, but he isn't really a star on the ice. He's a guy that idiotic non-hockey fans might know, because they remember him standing on his head in Vancouver. But this inflated perception isn't reality. He's good, and occasionally very good, but he is not the best goalie in the world. At all. And with the Sabres as lousy as they are, he isn't miracle worker enough to get them into the playoffs. Still, if you trade him, this team might really sink. I don't think Darcy has the guts to make that bold decision. So I imagine he'll be re-signed. He needs a better surrounding cast, because he's not Hasek. But with better players around him, they could contend. But right now, the team is woefully thin on talent and grit and tenacity.
03/06/2013 4:41PM
miller is good
the problem is turnovers the defense always made.is the reason where not last in the league he save some huge game for us.he's not the person to blame.the players need to score more goal
03/06/2013 4:49PM
"LACK OF CHARACTER", "MEDIOCRE TALENT", and "MR SOFTEE"... Classic RE
To set this up... anyone Remember when TIM THOMAS and his COURAGEOUS band of STORMTROOPERS WON THE CUP recently! You'd think Regeir was paying attention??? Apparently he was too busy golfing!! Simply put; YOU NEED A GOALIE, (and a TEAM of STORMTROOPERS) THAT DOESN'T MELTDOWN WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH and WILL HIS TEAM TO WIN!! Miller's mental FLAWS are SYMBOLIC of Walmart's traditional soft "MENTAL VULNERABILITY" and "LACK OF CHARACTER" which I purpose to define as..."CLASSIC REGEIRISM". If you notice MR Softee's biggest problem is that he's WEAKEST at THE MOST CHALLENGING MOMENTS!!!...CLASSIC REGEIRism, which infects Walmart like bacteria! This from your "elite goalie" has been of course FATAL to Walmart. What's even worse for Walmart is that it's not just him, at Walmart "LEADERSHIP" has ALWAYS been in short supply. For example; it is "LAFF-ABLE" through out the NHL that Pomminville is Walmart CAPTAIN and their key players; Stafford, Myers, and Vanek, are all SOFT players who ALL DISSAPPEAR each time COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP is needed. This LACK OF CHARACTER is a reflection of the TOTAL FAILURE AND INCOMPETENCE of Darcy Regeir... aka: CLASSIC REGEIRISM. It's almost as if Regeir purposely scouts and collects only uncourageous, mentally weak players! This team needs to be blown up and rebuilt not just from "the net out" but from THE HEART OUT! Starting with hiring a QUALIFIED NHL GM that understands talent, HEART and courageous character. THERE'S NONE OF THAT HERE!! So while you wait, SHINE UP THOSE GOLF CLUBS, SPRING IS NEAR!!! ...FORE ETXENDUM FOREVER 4-Regeirium again!
03/06/2013 4:55PM
This article....
is completely pointless....
03/06/2013 5:02PM
my opinion
Miller is definitely The Sabres goalie. I feel that if we want to win at all, we NEED him in the net. Our defense has the talent, but for some reason is not clicking. I think Buffalo needs more scoring. Keep everyone else and build a front line that can score on all levels. contribution from the 1-4 lines. that is what we need if we want to win.
03/06/2013 5:21PM
Yup
Ive been thinking exactly the same thing. But why would Miller stick around here unless he is sentimental to the team? Theres now way at this present time that he could stand to win a cup with the Sabres the way they are right now. If they want to keep Miller they are going to have to make some changes out front first and get a solid defensive network going and some scoring. I can't see Miller agreeing to a contract if he sees no future of a Stanley Cup. Build the team and Miller will follow. I believe that as I always believe in the Sabres. Here's to hoping Miller stays although unlikely.
03/06/2013 5:48PM
Trade & Rebuild
Trade Miller, Pommers, Staff, and others and start the rebuilding process.
03/06/2013 5:57PM
If I were Miller
I'd be asking for a trade. He can't win in Buffalo, he should go somewhere he has a chance at the Cup.
03/06/2013 6:02PM
A new low
Seen some pretty dumb articles on this site, and this is got to be one of the worst. Thank you for wasting my time reading this dribble.
03/06/2013 6:29PM
Buffalo and SJ
Miller and Joe Thornton both have contracts up after next year. Trade Miller and Stafford (and whatever else you need to) for Joe Thornton and Niemi. Miller is closer to his wife, Big Joe is back East, and we have a true #1 center with grit. That also gives us 1 year to convince Joe to stay.
03/06/2013 7:02PM
Gm
with Darcy Regier as GM, nothing will change. He needs to go and bring in Dudley,the seems to follow him around and he's NOT afraid to trade ANYONE or for anyone !!!! Just ask Chicago.
03/06/2013 7:10PM
Thanks
Thanks for taking the time to write an article on a subject that has been argued on your station, for which by my opinion, seems like a decade. Try thinking of something new.
03/06/2013 7:42PM
keep miller
typical buffalo attitude - have a good player, well, geez, we better trade him away or we might actually win something! Keep Miller and get some players to support him! Offense AND defense... he plays night after night and everyone expects him to win night after night... with little to no support. Get real! Keep Miller and get some decent players on this team!
03/06/2013 8:32PM
ryan miller
is to the Sabres on the ice what Ruff was behind the bench. An icon people cannot imagine life without, w/o whom we would be helpless,etc. We can lose with him, we can lose w/o him. Fire Darcy and rebuild.
03/06/2013 8:39PM
Trade him.
Miller is a good goalie, but it might be better to get something for him in a trade. The Sabres have so many holes to fill that they have little chance of being serious contenders in the next 3 years. See what Miller brings and they might be better off.
03/06/2013 8:57PM
?
rick dudley............get him
03/06/2013 9:07PM
Ask miller to sign for less money.
If there are players out there who really really want to win the stanley cup, dont you think this would be a good idea? does miller want the cup to come to buffalo? then sign for less... build a cup team idk maybe its not that simple lol
03/06/2013 9:14PM
cap hit is all that matters
If the sabres goaltender budget is the same as any other team, than keep him. But get rid of regier and get better defensmen
03/06/2013 9:41PM
Unbelievable - Miller is passing the career performance tipping point
I have been a loyal fan since 1971... and have not seen many sabres teams with its first 2 lines (def. and O) lacking in so many key skills areas as this team. They get outsized, outpositioned, outreached, outcommunicated and out focused too many times...thats why they don't have enough puck possession. Wasn't it interesting how their game picked up so much when their family and friend came along on the road trip. Shame on them for the lack of effort in the first 15 games. Dear Mr. Black and Pegula, clearly Darcy doesn't have a "green thumb" for the intangibles. He has had more chances than a cat. In fact HIS team plays more like cats and not enough like dogs year in and year out. Jeremy, you failed to make a clear point or suggestion on the direction to go with Miller. The problem they need to address is the lack of scoring skill and size. Ennis gets overwhelmed by Staal and others too often. Too many guys like him (and Gerbe, Leopold, Pominville, Myers, even Vanek and Grigorenko) on the team will not bring the cup to Buffalo. Too often it looks like boys against men in the puck possession fights. They have rid themselves of 2 (Roy and Connolly) in 2 years... it has to happen faster. Even if it is for several draft picks. Its time to restructure the roster starting with outing Darcy but keeping the true assets (Miller, Hodgson, Ott, Foligno, Kaleta, Erhoff) and acquiring more players other teams hate to play against. Much of the game is psychological and that would help tip the scales. We have seen hints of it from time to time, most recently the devils game when Ott and Kaleta were a wrecking crew. They need a couple more but with a little more skill in their package. If there is a strong rebuilding wind in this direction, the fans will know this and the amount of booing will drop and anxious patient optimism will return to the arena.
03/06/2013 9:55PM
Really Excellent Analysis
If you continue your logic you might say the Sabres should employ a cheaper goalie who is worse simply because the team might play better knowing their goaltender is unlikely not to singlehandedly win games. The team would then have more money for other better players. The problem is that the money isn't as much of a factor as having the players perform in accord with their talent which is hopefully in line with their salary. And there's the rub. We have a lot of guy's getting paid and a bunch are not playing to their salary. Miller is one clear exception. And reducing the quality of the team to save money in the hopes that you will get more value with a smaller investment just doesn't make sense. Not to say that it cannot happen. It can, but it would seem to make sense to part ways with those who are overpaid non-performers before you reduce the talent level for the sake of cash. Even though you feel Miller is being wasted - he gives Buffalo the chance to be very competitive, rather than marginally competitive. If and when that changes, it'll be time for him to go.
03/06/2013 10:20PM
Its true
We can lose with him or without him...its not about him and thats the point- so, whats the difference? Good article.
03/06/2013 10:26PM
Unbelievable - Lack of "P"...
..as in Puck Possession, Punch, Positioning, and Poise. I have been a loyal sabres follower since 1971 and I repeat from a previous post: the rangers and canes are cup contenders ....think about the advantages they took in outbattling the sabres for the puck then scoring. The sabres are akin to the sorry opponents of the Jim Kelly era Buffalo Bills. Those bills teams would sometimes take their foot off the throttle (lose concentration) letting the opponent score or get in the game and then get serious and turn up the concentration and, with their overwhelming skill, make their opponents flinch and finish them off (in most instances). The sabres goals against average is above 3 over the last 4 games. Its an indication that things haven't changed much with the coaching change and the cup is a pipe dream... 42 years without one and counting. Watch Myers when he is on the ice, in particular when he is in the defensive zone. Ask yourself, is he making a difference in changing puck possession or preventing scoring opportunities? Base it on his relative position/location on the ice, his speed & physicality, and his decisions when he is trying to retrieve the puck or stop the play from developing. I have watched a lot of hockey and am astonished to see how often he is either out of position in no man's land or outbattled for the puck. He's Mike Wilson in spades. On the ice for 3 goals last night, 2 he was clearly out of position. Surely there is someone on farm (McNabb) that could better execute the required assignments than this. Dear Mr. Black and Pegula: What do Kevyn Adams and James Patrick have on their coaching resumes that qualify them as stanley cup quality coaches. The players as a whole group have regressed under their direction over the last several years. Why have the sabres given up (been unable to defend) some many (I count 7 so far) carom off the backboard rebound goals (a popular fad in the nhl these day) and scored virtually none? Is it coaching, lack of skill, or both? Darcy must go. Don't you think it is appalling the sabres players as a group didn't start listening and picking up their game until after about 17 games when they were embarassed and after their family showed up for the road trip? Shame on them for how well they have been compensated and treated by the franchise and the Pegulas. On the positive side, we can see by the expression on Hodgson's face and performance lately that he is turning into a determined gamer...keep it up!
03/07/2013 12:28AM
Trade everyone
This team is garbage. Call up David Leggio and build around him. Or get the dude who sells peanuts and build around him. I really don't care. As long as you don't build around anyone currently on the team. They are all terrible.
03/07/2013 5:40AM
Trade him
If teams won't trade decent players for him, get draft picks and prospects. Miller will most likely leave at the end of next year. Time to rebuild.
03/07/2013 7:44AM
Goalie's Job
It would appear that that the goalie's job is to stop the opponent's shot and the job of the defense to keep the opponent from scoring which rails right into your piece about puck possesion (spot on by the way). Seemingly epic fail for what appears to be a shattered Sabres defense this year. What's the best way to fix it? That's why I'm a fan and not a hockey executive although it appears that neither has a clue. Nice article Jeremy.
03/07/2013 8:04AM
keep him
first of all we got good goaltenders in the system. lets try them lets not trade every body away. see some people who make comments on these sights. for get where they come from. do you remember when you play sports. were you the best every day no were you. see you proble were the ones who would pick the people who you know who could play. instead of saying ok lets see ones who couldnt play had to offer. to the game. me my slef that what i did. and what a surprise; a little coaching will do. so you keep the players that you know the and teach the ones who dont. and watch them shine. as a unit remember playing sports is to have fun. and thats for the young men and young women. its like your job when you mess up; dont you have to make up that mistake. and for the who are doing their best; keep pushing. dont let the trash talk get you down. because at the end of day. thats all they got is trash talk.
03/07/2013 8:12AM
Not a winner, only a whiner
As a Sabres fan in Montreal since 1975, I can tell you that Ryan Miller will never lead any team to a Stanley Cup, he may win one, but won't be because of him, I don't think he is a "winner" at all, doesn't have the mentality. Trade him, been saying this since he lost the Gold Medal game against Canada in 2010 Olympics, he couldn't outplay Roberto Luongo (another winner) in the gold medal game
03/07/2013 8:19AM
joe from florida
don't waste your time guys as long as DARCY IS HERE NOTHING WILL CHANGE, WAIT ANOTHER 15 YEARS and maybe things will get better. HEY DARCY WHAT ARE YOU SELLING TO MRS. BLACK OR MRS. PEGULAS IS A MYSTERY TO ALL NATIONAL NHL LEAGUES.
03/07/2013 8:50AM
I'm done with Mister Softee, Trade him ASAP
No sense in even talking about it anymore. Out played by a third stringer in Carolina was my last draw. Miller will always be Mister Softee. You're an idiot Jeremy if you think this guy can win a cup.
03/07/2013 10:04AM
Let him go
I agree with the article as written. Try to get something in return for him if possible. But the most important puzzle pieces is the team in from of your goalie. Ray Emery is undefeated behind a monstrous Blackhawks team. He was NEVER considered "elite" for any team he's ever played for, and he just came off of surgery that has ended other careers. Fix the D and get some goal scorers to start putting the puck in the net. Any goalie will do.
03/07/2013 10:05AM
????
can someone please tell what's with all the walmart comparisons to the sabres?
03/07/2013 10:08AM
Re: Trade him
Let him move on after this year by trade and take Sekera, Gerbe, Stafford, and Ennis with him. I'll take pylons, pucks, and a case of Tasty Cakes at this point.
03/07/2013 11:26AM
Thanks
For this article. Sums it up exactly how it is. The fans and the organization need a reality check when it comes to Miller. It's about the team in front of him at this point.
03/07/2013 11:43AM
Yeah,
I too am baffled by the "Walmart" comments. I've seen it in other blogs, must be the same idiot. It's a ridiculous analogy and I don't get it. Stick to the facts dude.
03/07/2013 3:29PM
you need to score
you don't win games with out scoring goals. simple as that. it don't matter who is back there if your not scoring you wont win.
03/07/2013 3:32PM
Taken for Granted
Miller is taken for granted by his teammates and Sabres fans. You can't say in one breath Ryan Miller is the biggest piece of the Sabres, and in the next, you're putting very little of the blame on him. The author and many Sabres fans constantly arrive at this contradiction, whether they know it or not. Why are we constantly re-evaluating the goaltender when he's the only player who shows up every night?
03/07/2013 5:37PM
I think he means WalMart Caters to dumbest, poorest people in America, so do sabres...
Why because The LARGEST AND FASTEST GROWING segment of the US population are the least educated and the poorest people. By stocking the lowest quality products at the cheapest prices possible and brainwashing these people, they easily bait them in.
03/07/2013 6:08PM
It's What Miller Wants
Ryan Miller wants to win the Stanley Cup. Therefore, I believe he is going to reject any offer from the Sabres and try to go to a team (just like Dominick Hasek did) that plays like they want to win the Stanley Cup.
03/07/2013 7:43PM
Gimme 2 average....
2 Average goalies at what? 2 million each? spend the balance of Millers salary and Enroths on some talented forwards and another defense man or two
03/07/2013 10:44PM
And they won't score goals because
they refuse to battle on the boards and in front of the net. they're a bunch of fruitcakes & purse swinging skirt wearers. Same for the defense. The next time they hit an opponent will be the first time.
03/08/2013 2:29PM
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
whats with all the beards on the sabers? do they think they are in the playoffs now? they look like the house of david!!!
03/09/2013 7:19AM
Good point
Very good points here. GAA and other goalie stats don't take into account how good the chances were. I remember the slump last year he was in. When you look his goals against I don't recall shots that he could see just beat him. They were typically break downs in front of him where the opportunity was too easy. So GAA for teams with great defenses all things equal are probably much better. I'm trying to recall how the D was in front of Hasek. He always seem to be on his game and may have done more with less than Miller.
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