Text
Facebook TwitterText
Share This: |

Posted: Friday, 22 March 2013 1:02PM

Is a Round 1 Bills QB a guarantee?



In a down year for quarterbacks in the draft, the Buffalo Bills have the unenviable task of trying to figure out which of this year's crop will not only be their next franchise quarterback, but the next big thing in the NFL as well.

Geno Smith? Matt Barkley? Ryan Nassib? Tyler Wilson? Mike Glennon? Tyler Bray? E.J. Manuel?Zac Dysert? Matt Scott? Landry Jones?

Choose any one of those names, and it's likely to whet the palate for Bills fans much more than the concept of going in to the season with a combination of Tarvaris Jackson and Aaron Corp.

Most believe that the Bills will take a quarterback at some point in the first three rounds, with many eyeing down their first round pick at eighth overall as the designated spot to draft their signal caller.

Will it actually happen though?

It's a complex answer that subscribes to two lines of thinking and the one that GM Buddy Nix follows is certainly unknown at this point in time.

The first way of going about their draft business would be to take the quarterback they like at eighth overall, no questions asked.

The good part about that? Likely outside of Geno Smith, who looks as though he'll be gone before their selection, the Bills will guarantee they get the guy they believe in the most out of this year's quarterback group.

The bad part? Well, Nix said it himself, in that unknowingly taped conversation posted on Deadspin.com between he and Tampa Bay GM Mark Dominik: "We've got to get one somehow. Bad time to need it."

That quote, amidst all the hullabaloo that came with the story, was surprisingly overshadowed. If Nix is just having a very general conversation with another GM, and throws that little line in there with a laugh at the end, you'd have to think the Bills might be nervous about taking a quarterback at eighth overall.

Playing off that is the second line of thinking. The Bills could elect to pass on a quarterback in the first round, choosing instead to find their signal caller later in the draft, while not passing on a player that definitively wouldn't be around by the time their second round pick put them on the clock.

They could sit back at 41st overall, and hope their quarterback will be there. Or, they could attempt to trade back, either into the first round or ahead of the other quarterback-needy teams lining up in the second.

The good? Adding an immediate starter to your team instead of hoping for immediate returns out of a second round pick. That has proven to be a hit-or-miss (Torell Troup, Aaron Williams, Cordy Glenn) in Nix's past three drafts.

The bad? Of course, running the risk that you lose out on the top quarterback on your board, with Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Arizona and the New York Jets all ahead of you in the second round.

So what will Buddy Nix do?

My first inclination would be to say they likely follow the whole "stay true to your board" theory and take an impact player at a different position to help the team right away. It goes right in line with how Nix has handled his first three drafts with the Bills.

However, Nix has never had pressure to find a quarterback like he has this year. Sure, some fans were loudly campaigning, through the 2010 and 2011 NFL Drafts, that the Bills need to take a quarterback early in the draft. And to my knowledge, if Cam Newton had been there at third overall in 2011, or if Christian Ponder had been there in the second round at 34th overall, Buffalo would have one by now.

Things didn't play out that way, and the presence of Ryan Fitzpatrick on the roster gave Nix some wiggle room. Fitzpatrick was competent enough to play. He kept them in games. The fans liked his personality. Nix could always hold the thought of "next year we'll get the guy."

He stuck to those guns, and that has brought us to the situation the Bills find themselves in today.

The way their roster is presently constructed at quarterback, the "next year we'll do it" comfort could be thrown out the window, and that could lead Buddy Nix to do something very uncharacteristic for him in the NFL Draft:

That is, taking a player that may not be worth the eighth overall pick, just because he's a quarterback. Operating out of fear. That has not been Buddy's modus operandi, since he took over the GM duties.

If somehow a player like Central Michigan offensive tackle Eric Fisher, or Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner, or BYU pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah is available when the Bills go on the clock, that may end up being a make or break moment for the franchise. All are perceived top five talents and they could be available if the draft goes a certain way.

It's a tricky, tricky situation that no one knows the right answer to until we're allowed to put on our hindsight goggles. However, it's one of the most intriguing parts of the 2013 NFL Draft, because this is a scenario Buddy Nix hasn't been in before.

How will he handle it? I think I can speak for all of us in saying this:

April 25 can't come soon enough.
 

All photos courtesy of AP
ADVERTISEMENT