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Posted: Sunday, 29 December 2013 11:50AM

Today's draft order scenarios for Buffalo Bills



(WGR 550) -- Entering the final week of the season, the Buffalo Bills are eliminated from playoff contention and one again look toward the off-season to try and field a roster capable of rising up in 2014 to steal a postseason bid.

With the 2013 regular season concluding on Sunday, the Bills and their fans will be interested in where they will inevitably be selecting for the 2014 NFL Draft. Regardless of the result of today's games, Buffalo will find themselves in familiar territory in the first round.

Going through all the different scenarios, the Bills can have anywhere from the 9th overall pick to the 14th overall pick in 2014. In five of the past seven drafts, the Bills have picked somewhere between those selections.

How do they get to each of the picks? Well, there are a few things to outline. Because the NFL goes with divisional opponents all the way through the Week 17 schedule, teams that are close in strength of schedule will only be affected by their same conference cross-division opponents based on their finish from the previous year.

Through Week 16, the draft order surrounding the Bills is as follows:
9) Tennessee Titans 6-9 (.504)
10) New York Giants 6-9 (.517)
11) Buffalo Bills 6-9 (.521)
12) Detroit Lions 7-8 (.452)
13) Pittsburgh Steelers 7-8 (.471)
14) New York Jets 7-8 (.492)
15) St. Louis Rams 7-8 (.554)
16) Green Bay Packers 7-7-1 (.452)

Above the Titans the highest win total is four, which is unattainable for the Bills regardless of the results today. Because of the divisional matchups, the Bills cannot pass the Titans if they both lose. The same case goes for the Bills and Rams if Buffalo wins and St. Louis loses, the latter cannot catch the former in strength of schedule.

The only team the Bills can pass in the strength of schedule part of things is the New York Giants, and they would need four separate contests to all go their way.

Before we get into scenarios, here are the only matchups that matter to the Bills and their potential draft selection:

Directly linked
Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (11-4) - 4:25 pm
Houston Texans (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (6-9) - 1:00 pm
New York Jets (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-7) - 1:00 pm
Washington Redskins (3-12) at New York Giants (6-9) - 1:00 pm
Cleveland Browns (4-11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) - 1:00 pm
Detroit Lions (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (4-10-1) - 1:00 pm

If tied with Giants in record, strength of schedule links
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5) - 1:00 pm
Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-11) - 1:00 pm
Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-7) - 4:25 pm
St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3) - 4:25 pm

One final note, ties are so rare that they were not accounted for in this outlook. If there are any ties, we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

Without further ado, here are the scenarios for the Bills to get each pick they are eligible for:

9th overall
  • Bills loss, Titans win, Giants win OR
  • Bills loss, Titans win, Giants loss, Jaguars loss, Chiefs loss, Panthers win, Seahawks win
10th overall
  • Bills loss, Titans loss, Giants win OR
  • Bills loss, Titans loss, Giants loss, Jaguars loss, Chiefs loss, Panthers win, Seahawks win OR
  • Bills loss, Titans win, Giants loss, either Jaguars/Chiefs win or Panthers/Seahawks loss OR
  • Bills win, Giants win, two of Steelers/Jets/Lions win while the other loses, Jaguars loss, Chiefs loss, Panthers win, Seahawks win
11th overall
  • Bills loss, Titans loss, Giants loss, either Jaguars/Chiefs win or Panthers/Seahawks loss OR
  • Bills win, Giants loss, Steelers win, Jets win, Lions win
12th overall
  • Bills win, Giants win, two of Steelers/Jets/Lions lose and the other wins, Jaguars loss, Chiefs loss, Panthers win, Seahawks win OR
  • Bills win, Giants loss, two of Steelers/Jets/Lions win and the other loses
13th overall
  • Bills win, Giants win, Steelers loss, Jets loss, either Jaguars/Chiefs win or Panthers/Seahawks loss OR
  • Bills win, Giants loss, two of Steelers/Jets/Lions loses and the other wins
14th overall
  • Bills win, Giants loss, Steelers loss, Jets loss, Lions loss OR
  • Bills win, Giants win, Steelers loss, Jets loss, Lions loss, either Jaguars/Chiefs win or Panthers/Seahawks loss
Twitter: @JoeBuscaglia

All photos courtesy of AP
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