Just a week ago a couple of top ten teams took a plunge back in to the middle of the rankings following a crushing loss. Iowa's blunder at home against Northwestern and Oregon falling to Stanford were two that shook up the respective conference races as well as the top ten. How will it all shake down after this week? To the picks!
Against the Spread
Last Week: 14-6
Year to Date: 102-71-2
Straight Up
Last Week: 16-4
Year to Date: 158-32
#1 Florida (-17.5) @ South Carolina
- Since Tim Tebow took over the starting duties in 2007 for Florida, the Gators have averaged 53.5 points per game against South Carolina. While that total may not be as high, the deficit will still be embarrassing.
Pick: Florida 44, South Carolina 13
#2 Alabama (-12.5) @ Mississippi State
- Mississippi State has played in their fair share of close games this season, but there's a difference against this Alabama team. They are going to be dominated up front by the Crimson Tide offensive line, which means Mark Ingram will have an absolute field day.
Pick: Alabama 32, Mississippi State 17
#3 Texas (-24) @ Baylor
- Texas is just on fire in recent weeks. Colt McCoy is finding his receivers with ease, and regaining his form from last season. This one won't be close.
Pick: Texas 54, Baylor 20
#4 TCU (-20) vs. #16 Utah
- TCU has blown out their past four opponents. Utah has also been on a roll since their loss to Oregon. With true freshman quarterback Jordan Wynn now in control of the Runnin' Utes, they have a different look for the Horned Frogs. TCU won't have as easy of a time in this one, but I still expect them to come out victorious.
Pick: TCU 27, Utah 21
#6 Boise State (-31.5) vs. Idaho
- You'll see the same thing written everywhere about this game. Good for Idaho for such a nice season this year, but better luck in the next lifetime against Boise State, especially on the blue turf. Boise State to cover.
Pick: Boise State 56, Idaho 19
#7 Georgia Tech (-13) @ Duke
- Georgia Tech slides in to this game after a close overtime win over Wake Forest. This Duke team has a better record, but aren't as good as the Demon Deacons. In fact, the Blue Devils are riddled with injuries at the moment, and I think it's going to be too much to keep it close with that running game of the Yellow Jackets.
Pick: Georgia Tech 48, Duke 22
#8 LSU (-23) vs. Louisiana Tech
- LSU played a hard fought game last weekend against Alabama. This weekend they have the opportunity to get healthy and get some positive momentum going again. PS: Did everyone else hear the collective groan from the LSU faithful when Jarrett "Six Pick Six" Lee came in to the game at quarterback for the Tigers?
Pick: LSU 39, Louisiana Tech 13
#9 USC (-10.5) vs. Stanford
- USC is just an enigma this year. There's really no other way to describe it. They go insane on offense some weeks, and then they throw up a clunker like the one last weekend against Arizona State. I like USC's offense to get back on track here against Stanford's defense. But beware of the Cardinal to keep this one close. I picked Stanford to beat Oregon last week, but I don't think they'll do it twice in a row.
Pick: USC 29, Stanford 24
#10 Iowa (+17) @ #11 Ohio State
- Not much surprise at this spread. A freshman quarterback in for Iowa means they are doomed. I doubt they score more than a couple of field goals against Ohio State.
Pick: Ohio State 31, Iowa 3
#12 Pittsburgh (-7) vs. Notre Dame
- Can Pittsburgh make it two wins in two years against Notre Dame? They certainly have the running game for it, with freshman sensation Dion Lewis. Bill Stull has really stepped up his game this year to help the passing game be a weapon for the Panthers. I love Notre Dame's quick strike offense, but I think the ball control of the Pitt run game is what will separate these two.
Pick: Pittsburgh 34, Notre Dame 28
#13 Oregon (-18.5) vs. Arizona State
- Even though the Oregon Ducks lost just a week ago, they still put up 42 points on the road. I expect them to be an angry team against the Sun Devils.
Pick: Oregon 38, Arizona State 13
#14 Miami (FL) (-3.5) @ North Carolina
- North Carolina is continually one of the most overrated teams as far as the spread goes from a week to week basis. Their offense is inept, simply put. Miami will win by more than three points, no doubt in my mind.
Pick: Miami (FL) 31, North Carolina 12
#15 Houston (-5.5) @ Central Florida
The Cougars sure do know how to make their games interesting. I'd just like to gloat for a quick second, I've had them in my Top 25 since the beginning of the season. Ok, that's enough. Houston will win this one by a score or two.
Pick: Houston 48, Central Florida 35
#17 Arizona (+3) @ California
- Arizona's offense is certainly a pleasant surprise this season. Most thought they would take a step back with a new quarterback at the helm, but they've seemingly done the exact opposite. Without Jahvid Best, Cal is nothing. I like Arizona.
Pick: Arizona 27, California 20
#18 Penn State (-25) vs. Indiana
- Indiana loves to keep games close for the first half and then get blown out in the second. To be fair, it was undeserved against Iowa. But whenever a team loses a big game the week before, if I believe them to be mentally tough, I will never pick against them. That includes Penn State. 25 points is too much, however.
Pick: Penn State 30, Indiana 10
#19 Oklahoma State (-4.5) vs. Texas Tech
- An interesting matchup here. It's almost a toss up, so with those I'll take the home team.
Pick: Oklahoma State 37, Texas Tech 31
#20 Wisconsin (-9) vs. Michigan
- The Badgers have had a quietly good season. Michigan has struggled since the beginning of the season, and now sit at 5-5 on the season. Wisconsin is just more physical, so I'll take the Badgers. Michigan likes to keep it close though.
Pick: Wisconsin 24, Michigan 20
#21 Virginia Tech(-18.5) @ Maryland
- Maryland is terrible. I remember one reader wrote me and said Maryland is not as bad of a team as I thought they were earlier this season. The Terrapins are 2-7. Yeah, about that...
Pick: Virginia Tech 37, Maryland 14
#22 BYU (-27) @ New Mexico
- Not a lot of room for upsets this week, but I'm not going to force one. Especially not here with BYU taking on New Mexico. The Cougars will be firing on all cylinders on offense. The Lobos of New Mexico have allowed at least 34 points in seven of their nine games. Oh, yeah, they're also 0-9 this season.
Pick: BYU 59, New Mexico 16
#23 Oregon State (-13.5) vs. Washington
- Oregon State has a very underrated offense, and continue to play efficiently with such young talent in their lineup. That being said, Washington is due for a close game. After taking down USC earlier this season, they've gone down the tubes and quickly. Expect Huskies quarterback Jake Locker to have a big game against a not so good Beavers defense.
Pick: Oregon State 28, Washington 27
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