Posted: Saturday, 26 December 2009 9:10PM
Bills-Falcons Primer
Joe Buscaglia Reporting
The 2009 NFL season is now 15 weeks through, and the Buffalo Bills were officially eliminated from playoff contention. Now all they have left to play for is pride, along with interim coach Perry Fewell trying to motivate the players in the attempt to maintain his position moving forward past this season.
This Sunday they meet a team with a familiar situation. Although they have a 7-7 record on the season, the Atlanta Falcons have also been eliminated from the NFC playoff picture. But many key injuries to the Falcons have leveled the playing field between the two teams, and it should make for a competitive Sunday. But the wildcard in the situation is if Brian Brohm starts the game for Buffalo. How will it all shake down? Let's take an in-depth look at the matchup.
Offense
After flying high with a rookie quarterback all the way to the playoffs just last season, the Falcons have come crashing back to earth in 2009. They rank right around the middle of the pack in most of the major offensive categories. Atlanta averages 22.3 points per game (22.3) and 332.8 total yards per game (18th). But their rushing average has certainly been lacking this season as opposed to 2008. Last year, Atlanta averaged 152.7 yards per game on the ground, one of the best totals in the league. But because of injury this season, the Falcons run for jus 109.7 yards per game, which ranks 20th in the league. Atlanta has converted on 41.3 percent of third down chances this season.
Quarterback: What a difference a year makes. Second-year quarterback Matt Ryan hasn't enjoyed the same success as he did a season ago, and that's partially due to the most common thread of the Atlanta Falcons: Injuries. Hitting a sophomore slump of sorts, Ryan has completed only 58.3 percent of his passes on the way to throwing for 2,443 yards, 17 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and yielding a quarterback rating of 79.1. This week at practice he only practiced on a limited basis, and is listed as questionable for Sunday. Ryan has come out and said he has designs on playing. If he can't go, it'll be two former Louisville quarterbacks doing battle, with Chris Redman going up against Brian Brohm of the Bills.
Running Back: The biggest reason for the downturn of the Falcons this season has been the fall of the running game. Michael Turner has been battling injury, and only has 871 yards on the season. Turner is however averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and has scored 10 touchdowns. But to the surprise of no one who follows Atlanta, he's yet another star player that is listed as questionable to play. Without Turner in the lineup, the carries will fall to Jason Snelling and and Jerious Norwood. Snelling will get the majority of the carries, with the speedy Norwood being better suited for third and long plays with some running room.
Wide Receivers/Tight End: After a breakout year last season, Roddy White certainly has shown that it wasn't a fluke. On the year, he has 71 receptions for 948 yards and eight touchdowns. Even with the production from White, the Falcons have struggled to find a good second option. Michael Jenkins is the number two man, but he's failed to live up to expectations since being drafted. On the season, Jenkins has 44 catches for 568 yards and just one touchdown. But Atlanta is certainly getting their money's worth out of acquisition and tight end Tony Gonzalez. The future Hall of Fame player leads the team with 78 receptions, and has six touchdowns this season. Gonzalez is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, so without Bryan Scott to cover the big tight end, he might burn them all afternoon.
Offensive Line: This unit has been fairly consistent throughout the season. They've allowed their quarterbacks some time to get rid of the football, only giving up 23 sacks in 14 games. But two of the starting linemen are questionable for Sunday. Right guard Harvey Dahl and left tackle Sam Baker both are a game-time decision.
Defense
Adding to the reasons why Atlanta won't be in the playoffs this year is because of their porous pass defense. Both starting cornerbacks for Sunday's game are incredibly inexperienced, and it shows in the numbers. The Falcons give up 254.8 yards per game through the air, the third worst total in the NFL, and have also allowed 24 touchdowns through the air. They also can't get off the field because of an inability to stop teams on third down. The Bills have had their woes against third down chances, but Atlanta blows them out of the water. The Falcons give up the first down on 46.6 percent of their opposition's chances.
Defensive Line: Here's yet another area that the Falcons are ravaged by injuries. Starting defensive end Jamaal Anderson and defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux are both questionable. Babineaux is the bigger loss of the two, having five sacks and two forced fumbles so far this season. John Abraham has been just average this season. The defensive end has 4.5 sacks and a forced fumble. The biggest surprise of the season has been the play of backup defensive end Kroy Biermann. In limited action, he's got five sacks and a forced fumble.
Linebackers: This group is led by Curtis Lofton, who is -- you guessed it, questionable to play because of injury. Lofton is the team leader in total tackles with 128 tackles, and also has two forced fumbles. If he can't play, that will likely shift normal starting outside linebacker Mike Peterson to the inside position, and may make room for former Bills player Coy Wire to get some time on the field. Peterson has 100 tackles, one sack, two forced fumbles and an interception in 2009. The starting left outside linebacker is Stephen Nicholas, who has 71 tackles and three sacks this season. If Lofton does play, he tends to have trouble in coverage, so the underneath routes could be something the Bills could focus in on.
Defensive Backs: The woes of the pass defense have been well-documented, and that's because of youth in the secondary. With normal starting cornerback Chris Houston doubtful with an injury, Brent Grimes is the number one corner on the depth chart. Grimes is a third-year man out of Shippensburg, and has five interceptions this season. Opposite him will be rookie Chris Owens, who has struggled and has been taken advantage of at times this season. The safety spots are held down by veteran Erik Coleman (102 tackles, two forced fumbles), and the young Thomas DeCoud. DeCoud has three interceptions, two sacks and a forced fumble this season. He was also a former teammate of Marshawn Lynch's at California. If Brohm gets the start for Buffalo, he'll be able to utilize his talented wideouts to take advantage of the young cornerbacks of the Falcons.
Special Teams
Since being acquired mid-season, Matt Bryant hasn't been used all that much. The kicker has hit 4 out of 5 opportunities this season in Atlanta. Eric Weems is the team's designated return man for both kickoffs (25.5 YPR) and punts (9.8 YPR). Michael Koenen is the team's punter, and has a net average of 43 yards per kick.
History
The Buffalo Bills are 4-5 all time against the Atlanta Falcons. The last time the two team's met was in 2005, when Michael Vick led the Falcons to 24-16 victory at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The last Buffalo victory came all the way back in 1995. The 23-17 win was highlighted by Bill Brooks, who had two touchdown receptions and over 100 yards receiving.
Injuries
Atlanta: DOUBTFUL: CB Chris Houston. QUESTIONABLE: DE Jamaal Anderson, OG Harvey Dahl, S Charlie Peprah, HB Michael Turner, DT Jonathan Babineaux, OT Sam Baker, MLB Curtis Lofton, QB Matt Ryan.
Buffalo: OUT: QB Trent Edwards, S Todd Johnson, OLB Bryan Scott. QUESTIONABLE: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, CB Drayton Florence, LB Ashlee Palmer, WR Josh Reed.
Pivotal Matchup
TE Tony Gonzalez vs. S Donte Whitner / LB Nic Harris
QB Brian Brohm vs. CB Chris Owens
TE Shawn Nelson and WR Josh Reed vs. MLB Curtis Lofton
Final Thoughts
With all signs pointing to Brian Brohm getting his first start for the Buffalo Bills, there is an unusual air of optimism surrounding this contest. Brohm is a young quarterback who was highly thought of after his successful career at Louisville. And after being poached off of the Green Bay practice squad, some fans have been clamoring for him to see action sooner rather than later. But with the matchup as it is, if the Falcons questionable players cannot give it a go, the Bills certainly have a shot in this game. If Brohm can get Terrell Owens and Lee Evans involved, and early, then he could torch the young secondary of Atlanta. But it also depends solely on how much they allow the second-year man to do in his first professional start. Needless to say, it gives a reason to watch the football game, and it will most definitely be interesting.
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